ESPN analyst Bill Barnwell recently evaluated 17 wide receivers available via free agency or trade, including San Francisco 49ers star Deebo Samuel. Samuel, who requested a trade on Super Bowl Sunday, has seen a decline in production over the past few seasons, prompting the team to allow him to explore potential trade options.
Despite this, moving Samuel presents financial hurdles due to salary cap implications. If the 49ers trade him before June 1, they will absorb a significantly larger cap hit than if they retain him, making a post-June 1 release designation a more viable option. Barnwell highlighted Samuel’s primary strength—his ability to generate yards after the catch (YAC). While Samuel’s 2021 season was a career-best, featuring 1,770 scrimmage yards, 14 total touchdowns, and 1,405 receiving yards, his performance in subsequent years has not reached the same heights. Notably, 2021 remains his only season with over 900 receiving yards.
Yards After Catch Strength vs. Samuel’s Overall Decline
Despite declining overall numbers, Samuel remained effective after the catch in 2024. He accumulated 417 YAC yards, ranking 15th among NFL receivers, while his 8.2 YAC per reception ranked fourth. Barnwell highlights his ability to create plays in the open field remains a valuable asset.
“If you’ve watched any 49ers games over the past few years, you’ve seen Samuel bursting through tackles or running away from defenders in the open field,” Barnwell noted. “He’s one of the league’s most difficult players to bring down.” However, Barnwell also pointed out areas of concern in Samuel’s recent performances.
“The problem is most everything else,” Barnwell added, highlighting Samuel’s struggles beyond YAC production.
Statistical Regression vs. Role Shift in 49ers Offense
Samuel’s 2024 season marked his worst statistical performance outside of his injury-shortened 2020 campaign. He recorded only 806 scrimmage yards and four total touchdowns. His inefficiency as a receiver was evident, ranking 137th in catch score while dropping four of his 80 targets. Moreover, he faded significantly as the season progressed, failing to surpass 25 receiving yards in six of his final seven games.
Without Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk, the 49ers’ offense increasingly relied on tight end George Kittle and running backs Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo, with Jauan Jennings emerging as the team’s primary third-down receiving threat. Samuel’s traditional dual-threat role also diminished. After averaging an impressive 6.1 yards per carry in 2023, his rushing efficiency dropped significantly to just 3.2 yards per attempt in 2024.
“Yards per carry can be misleading if a player is picking up a lot of short-yardage first downs,” Barnwell explained. “But he went from generating first downs on more than 30% of his runs from 2021 to 2023 to just 11.9% this season.”
With his declining production and significant salary cap implications, Samuel’s trade market remains uncertain. While his YAC ability is still elite, teams considering acquiring him must weigh his overall regression and shifting offensive role before making a move.
Financial Repercussions of Deebo Samuel’s Contract
If the San Francisco 49ers move Deebo Samuel before the 2025 NFL Draft, San Francisco would take a $31.5 million dead cap hit, per Over the Cap. Any team acquiring Samuel would be on the hook for $17.5 million. The large financial commitments will likely reduce the value of draft pick compensation returning to San Francisco and potentially make any deal harder to complete.
San Francisco could view trading Samuel after June 1st as a more beneficial scenario. Despite the list of suitors dwindling post-NFL Draft, trading the receiver during the summer would only force the 49ers to take a $10.7 million dead cap hit. It would also save San Francisco just under $12 million in 2026 as well.
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