The Los Angeles Dodgers could have reunited with Cody Bellinger last winter. Instead, they committed a record-setting amount of money to Kyle Tucker—a decision that looks increasingly questionable four months into the season.
Patrick Warren of Dodgers On SI reported that Bellinger confirmed the Dodgers contacted him during free agency before signing Tucker.
“There was definitely a possibility,” Bellinger told The California Post. “There was some dialogue there, for sure.”
Bellinger wanted another opportunity to contend for a World Series with the organization that drafted him. However, his daughter’s approaching school years made long-term stability important. The Dodgers preferred a shorter commitment and eventually signed Tucker to a four-year, $240 million deal.
Bellinger returned to the New York Yankees for five years and $162.5 million.
Bellinger Producing More for Much Less
GettyCody Bellinger #35 of the New York Yankees speaks with Freddie Freeman #5 of the Los Angeles Dodgers during the first inning of the 2026 MLB All-Star Game at Citizens Bank Park on July 14, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
The comparison favors Bellinger by a significant margin. Through Monday, the 2026 All-Star Game MVP was batting .255 with 11 home runs, 52 RBI, 10 stolen bases and a .762 OPS.
Tucker entered the Dodgers’ series against Philadelphia batting .240 with seven homers, 47 RBI, six steals and a .702 OPS. His 0.9 Baseball-Reference WAR trails Bellinger’s 3.6 despite Tucker carrying an annual salary nearly twice as large.
Bellinger’s contract averages $32.5 million annually. Tucker’s deal averages $60 million, includes $30 million in deferred money and gives him opt-out opportunities after the second and third seasons. Los Angeles is paying an additional $27.5 million per year for less production so far.
Statcast provides little reason to dismiss the difference as pure luck. Bellinger owns a .349 expected weighted on-base average, compared with Tucker’s .333. Bellinger has also provided defensive versatility in the outfield and at first base, strengthening his overall value.
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Did the Dodgers Make a Mistake?
GettyKyle Tucker #23 of the Los Angeles Dodgers warms up during batting practice before the game against the Cleveland Guardians at Dodger Stadium on March 30, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)
If the decision is judged solely on the first four months, the answer is yes. Bellinger has been the more productive player on the cheaper contract, while Tucker has performed like a league-average hitter.
That does not mean the Dodgers’ original reasoning was indefensible. Tucker is two years younger and entered free agency after five consecutive seasons of star-level production. Bellinger has rediscovered his All-Star form, but the shoulder injury that contributed to his collapse in Los Angeles made a five-year guarantee riskier.
The Dodgers also valued flexibility. Tucker’s shorter contract fit their preference, while Bellinger prioritized security. With Los Angeles owning baseball’s best record, Tucker’s slump has not damaged its championship position.
Still, opportunity cost matters. Choosing Bellinger would have provided better production, greater defensive flexibility and $27.5 million in annual savings that could have addressed other needs.
The Dodgers did not necessarily make the wrong bet based on what both players were when they entered free agency. Based on what they have become in 2026, however, Bellinger would clearly have been the better investment.
Tucker can change that conclusion with a second-half resurgence or a memorable October. Until then, the Dodgers’ decision looks like an expensive mistake.
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