The Cubs expect to have a good rotation this season. But like many rotations, the Cubs have questions, particularly at the bottom.
The Cubs front end is set in stone. The top of the rotation features two ace-caliber pitchers Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele. Both hope to build off of last year’s dominance and lead the Cubs to playoff contention. Additionally, Jameson Taillon is firmly set in the third spot after having his best season since 2018. But after the first three, the Cubs rotation becomes a bit muddy. The Cubs will have to pick from offseason additions, promising youngsters, and homegrown productive players to fill out the final two spots of the rotation. But who are the primary candidates?
Matthew Boyd
After signing a two-year-$29 million contract with the Cubs this summer, many predict that Boyd will assume the fourth spot in the rotation. While Boyd was great last year with a 2.72 ERA and 1.134 WHIP, it was in an eight-game sample size. The issue for Boyd has been health. He hasn’t pitched in 100 or more innings in a single season since 2019. The lefty throws a Fourseam Fastball, Changeup, Slider, and Sinker and mixes in a curve occasionally. He will get his chance to cement his spot in the rotation, but his health may be what causes him to lose his spot.
Colin Rea
Rea is another veteran free-agent addition for the Cubs and is an inverse of Boyd. His season last year was more quantity over quality as he ate 167.2 innings for the Brewers, pitching to a 4.29 ERA. Cubs fans may not remember his last stint in Wrigley. In the COVID-shortened 2020 season, he had an inflated 5.79 ERA. Rea does not grade out favorably on Baseball Savant with low marks in just about every category. He may be better utilized as a long reliever/ emergency 6th man as I don’t know if he has the talent to get every fifth start.
Ben Brown
After a very promising start to his major league career in 2024, Ben Brown’s season was cut short due to a neck injury. After being traded for veteran reliever David Robertson the 6’6 fireballer has been an eyebrow-raiser for Cubs fans. His fastball is electric averaging 95 MPH and his 86 MPH curve shows good movement as well.
The twenty-five-year-old has the least MLB service time of anyone on this list, but he may have the most potential. Last year he started eight games for the Cubs and pitched the other seven out of the bullpen. His 3.58 ERA was solid, especially after a rough start and his 112 ERA+ is very encouraging. Ben Brown will surely be striving for the fifth spot in the Cubs rotation and if he can put it all together, it might be his to lose.
Jordan Wicks
Last season was not kind to Jordan Wicks. He accumulated -.5 bWAR after having a 5.48 ERA and 73 ERA+. Add to this his decreasing K/BB ratio, increase in HR/9, and a 1.630 WHIP, and it is easy to disregard Wicks as a member of the Cubs rotation this season. But perhaps some context is needed to remind everyone of the pitcher he could be. First, he dealt with a plethora of injuries last season that could have affected his ability to pitch at his best. His oblique injury put a hamper on what could have been an improvement on his decent 2023 debut season.
After being drafted in the first round of the 2021 draft Wicks impressed with his changeup. That pitch has the potential to be one of the best in the majors and is arguably what got him to the big leagues so quickly. Nevertheless, Wicks will have an uphill battle ahead of him to secure a spot in the rotation. He will likely start the season as a long reliever and if his early numbers are solid, he may get a trial run as the Cubs number five starter.
Javier Assad
Many people believe that regression is coming for Javier Assad. Few pitchers in baseball have as stark of a contrast from their real numbers and they’re advanced analytics. For example, his 3.73 ERA last season was good, but his xERA of 4.97 shows he was extremely lucky. Additionally, his 107 ERA+ was a significant drop off from his mark of 136 and 140 in his first two seasons.
Regardless, Assad was productive in 147 Innings for the Cubs last season. While he is by no means a superstar, he gets outs and stays healthy. He started 29 games for the ‘24 Cubs and went 7-6. He hasn’t yet shown the ability to go deep into games, averaging just over 5 innings per start. Barring something drastic, he should find himself as a valuable member of the bullpen. His role will likely be appearing in long relief situations with an occasional emergency start akin to Drew Smyly’s role last season.
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