Marlins star pitcher Sandy Alcantara may be on the trade block. The Cubs have been linked to the former Cy Young winner as a possible trade partner with the Marlins.
The twenty-nine-year-old has been superb in his seven big league seasons throwing for a 3.32 ERA, a 130 ERA+, and accumulating 19.7 WAR. In particular, his 2022 season was sensational as he won the Cy Young Award after tossing 228.2 innings of 2.28 ERA ball. His minuscule .980 WHIP helped contribute to his 180 ERA+.
But after the 2023 season, Alcantara had to get Tommy John surgery. He missed the entirety of the 2024 season and has been rehabbing and recovering for seventeen months to make his way back to the majors.
Given that the Marlins may not be contenders they may be looking to trade Alcantara and accumulate assets for their next wave of players.
Cubs have the Ammo
The Cubs were recently listed in a Bleacher Reports article as a team that should/could make a move for Alcantara. The Cubs need help with their rotation depth. While the top of their rotation is very good, the bottom is less than ideal. This is evidenced by a Bob Nightengale report saying the Cubs have had talks with veteran free agent Lance Lynn.
Additionally, the Cubs have the firepower to get a deal done. They have seven Top-100 prospects in MLB, with many of them advancing to Triple-A already.
So what is a realistic price point for the 6’5 flamethrower? It’s important to note this trade would not be a rental, as Alcantara is under contract for another two years at $17.3 AAV. Additionally, his contract includes a club option for the 2027 season at $21 million. In essence, his current deal means he could be under contract for another three seasons.
That type of club control is a rarity. We don’t often see players of his ability with this much club control get traded. In laments terms, he won’t be cheap at all.
The Cubs have to decide how much of their coveted farm they would be willing to give up to acquire his services. Despite his ability, he is coming off of Tommy John surgery which complicates the gamble.
Which prospects would be dealt?
But if the Cubs do pull the trigger and push their chips to the middle of the table, what offer might the Marlins accept? As previously stated, I think the Cubs would have to depart with at least two of their seven top-100 prospects.
No problem right? Well, considering one of them is Matt Shaw, their soon-to-be everyday third baseman that eliminates him. What about Cade Horton? A former top 20 prospect who has ace potential of his own? The cubs may want to stay patient to see if he can reach his incredibly high ceiling. They may be hesitant to deal away Moises Ballesteros, as he could be a star at the position they currently lack in the bigs. I don’t anticipate any of those prospects being traded given their value to the Cubs organization.
That leaves Kevin Alcantara, Owen Cassie, James Traintos, and Jefferson Rojas. I believe the Cubs would be willing to depart with two of them, especially one of the outfielders due to their superb depth at that spot. While they have tremendous ability, you can’t play everyone. One of the benefits of accumulating a top farm system is the trade flexibility it provides you. The Cubs may want to cash the check on these prospects before it bounces.
The Marlins may also want a major-league-caliber player as a part of the deal. This could include someone like Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, or Nico Hoerner. None of these players should dealy disrupt trade from the Cubs end in my opinion.
Overall the Cubs have the ammunition to make a deal for a player like Alcantara. They have plenty of prospect depth (especially outfield) and have some young major leaguers to get the deal across the finish line.
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