It’s true: Blackhawks star Connor Bedard has scored only two goals in his last 21 games, dating back to last season.
That statistic made the rounds on social media Tuesday night — fueling fans’ negativity after a discouraging Hawks loss to the Canucks — and it is eye-opening. This season, he has just one goal in seven games.
But it’s not a worthy cause for concern — neither for fans, nor for Hawks coach Luke Richardson, nor for Bedard himself. It’s a relatively small sample drawing from two different situations, and it’s highly affected by bad luck that will not hold up over a larger sample.
“Obviously I want to score and I want to produce, so it’s frustrating,” Bedard said Wednesday. “But [I’m] creating a lot. If I wasn’t creating chances…that’s when you worry a little more.”
Said Richardson: “I would like to see him shoot the puck a little more and a little quicker, but he knows that, and sometimes it doesn’t present itself. You don’t want him to start forcing it, either. He’s going to be a guy that, when it goes in, there’s going to be a lot of them going in.”
The 19-year-old center’s seven points so far have been entirely accumulated in three games (against Utah, the Oilers and the Sharks), whereas he has been held pointless in four games (including the last two at home against the Sabres and Canucks), so his production has been undeniably consistent.
But his comment about creating plenty of chances is spot-on. That’s why there’s no reason to worry.
Out of 368 forwards league-wide, Bedard ranks 39th in shots on goal per minute — just one spot behind Nikita Kucherov, whose seven goals currently lead the NHL, and ahead of reigning Hart Trophy winner Nathan MacKinnon and future career goals leader Alex Ovechkin (among many others).
In his first seven games last season, Bedard scored just two goals on 22 shots. Then he promptly erupted for seven goals (on 21 shots) over his next six games.
In his first seven games this season, Bedard has scored just one goal on 25 shots — a 4.0% shooting percentage that will not last. That includes zero goals on six shots (and nine shot attempts) on Tuesday, when he simply couldn’t buy a point against Canucks goalie Kevin Lankinen — even when setting up teammates like Nick Foligno for golden chances of their own.
“There’s nights like that,” Bedard said.
He looked skyward in disbelief, whacked his stick and slammed the bench door a couple times — his usual expressions of frustration — but he didn’t seem as furious as he did during the “nights like that” last season. That’s one of several signs of maturation.
“It’s something I’ve been working on a lot every year, trying to get better at flushing things,” he added. “I’m not too happy for the rest of the night. Then, in the morning, you try to forget about it. Coming to the rink, you don’t want to be bringing anyone else’s energy down with your frustration.”
Another one of those signs of maturation is his defensive improvement, which has been significant. Last season, the Hawks enjoyed only a 43.2% share of the expected goals during his five-on-five shifts; this year, they have a 58.3% share.
Analytics skeptics can just look at the raw data. In spite of Bedard’s mere one goal, the Hawks have still outscored opponents 4-3 during his shifts this season after being outscored 67-37 during them last season.
If there’s anything to nitpick about Bedard’s shooting, though, it’s that he might be holding onto the puck a millisecond too long while trying to pinpoint the perfect spot.
Richardson praised Taylor Hall for getting the puck off his stick so quickly on his first-period goal Tuesday, giving Lankinen no time to get set. Bedard might benefit from replicating that approach.