Last season was the coming out party for Cubs pitcher Shota Imanaga. After signing a 4-year $53 million contract with the Cubs last summer, some were skeptical about how his pitch style would transfer over to MLB. In 29 games, the southpaw tossed 173.1 innings, had an ERA below 3, and accumulated 3.0 bWAR for the Cubs. His season was superb, and if not for the rise of phenom Paul Skenes, Shota may have been the best rookie pitcher in the National League last season.
But can the Japanese phenom continue his dominance for the Cubs in 2025? Can he continue his battle with Justin Steele to become the true ace of a talented Cubs rotation? The Cubs will certainly look for him to be a big contributor as well this season as indicated by him getting the ball in the opening-day game against the Dodgers in his home country of Japan.
Examining his numbers
When looking at his underlying numbers there are many reasons to be optimistic. His baseball-savant page paints the picture of a pitcher with elite command, chase rate, and offspeed run value. Shota’s signature pitch, the 92 MPH fastball with an elite spin rate stumped hitters all season. Due to its high spin rate, the pitch has a rising effect that causes hitters to swing under it. This is evidenced by his 72nd percentile whiff rate despite 15th percentile velocity. His secondaries were good as well with him incorporating a Curve, Splitter, and Slider into his repertoire.
On another note, there may have been some luck involved in his 2024 breakout campaign. His xERA was 3.39 almost a half run higher than his actual ERA. Additionally, Shota’s pitches get hit much more in the air than on the ground. His 8.6% barrel rate and his 19% ground ball rate are both poor and his average exit velocity is average at best. He is by no means a clone of the aforementioned Paul Skenes, as he does not dominate opposing hitters with elite velocity and power.
The environment matters
Being a flyball pitcher in a park like Wrigley can have its pros and cons. For starters Wrigley is often affected by the wind coming off on Lake Michigan, meaning its fly balls are at their mercy. Depending on how the wind blows on a certain day could have a huge effect on a pitcher like Shota. On the other hand, his defense behind him should pick up some slack. The Cubs currently boast four gold glove winners Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, Ian Happ, and Kyle Tucker. Additionally, youngster Pete Crow-Armstrong is certainly on track to win some later in his career.
Shota Imanaga is an interesting player to project. On one hand, he doesn’t have elite velocity and big-league hitters have been able to launch his pitches. On the other, hand Imanaga controls the strike zone well, doesn’t walk batters, and gets a lot of chase with good vertical movement. He may take a small step down in 2025, but I think his ace potential hasn’t been realized yet. Expect more greatness from Shota Imanaga in 2025.
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