Broncos (9-5) vs. Chargers (8-6)
When: Thursday, 6:15 p.m. MT
Where: SoFi Stadium
Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/Prime Video, KMGH-7
Broncos-Chargers series: Denver is 72-56-1 in 129 regular-season games dating back to 1960; the Broncos lost 23-16 in the last meeting, on Oct. 13, 2024, at home, and have won three of the last four games against Los Angeles.
In the spotlight: Chargers QB Herbert doesn’t make too many mistakes. That could be challenging for the Broncos in primetime.
After Denver’s 23-16 loss to the Chargers in Week 6, head coach Sean Payton understands the challenge before him on Thursday at SoFi Stadium.
Quarterback Justin Herbert doesn’t turn the ball over, and he’s hard to get off the field on third down. The latter issue was particularly glaring during the teams’ first meeting of the season at Empower Field in October when Herbert completed 9 of 9 passes for 127 yards and a 118.8 passer rating on third down.
Those traits mean two things for Denver, which is seeking to clinch its first playoff berth since the 2015 season. The Broncos will have to play clean on offense in order to maximize possessions. And defensively, they won’t be able to lean on generating turnovers as a means of stopping the Chargers. It’ll take solid third-down defense.
“There are certain formulas to winning and they’ve been outstanding,” Payton said. “A quarterback who hasn’t thrown an interception until last week. Part of this game is understanding how to win and how not to beat yourself or how to keep yourself from winning.”
While the Chargers have had their fair share of issues in the passing game (25th in yards per game), Herbert has been elite at keeping the ball out of harm’s way. He has two interceptions and 12 turnover-worthy plays (a pass that has a high percentage chance of being intercepted or a poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbling), according to Pro Football Focus.
His first interception came in Week 2 against Carolina and he didn’t throw another one until last week’s 40-17 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Denver defense has 11 takeaways in four games, but the Broncos have also faced quarterbacks with decision-making issues. Cleveland’s Jameis Winston threw three picks against Denver and eight in three games, resulting in him being benched. Indianapolis’ Anthony Richardson had a pair of interceptions in Week 15.
The Broncos have recorded three defensive touchdowns in two games, with two coming from edge rusher Nik Bonitto.
Herbert, who has thrown for 2,959 yards and 16 touchdowns, will not give Denver’s defense many chances to create momentum-swinging plays. Neither will Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, who the team will face on Dec. 28. Burrow has eight interceptions and 13 turnover-worthy plays.
On Thursday, it will be important for Denver’s offense to limit turnovers and avoid as many three-and-outs as possible because the defense might not be able to bail them. Broncos quarterback Bo Nix, however, has had issues with his decision-making over the past two weeks, throwing a combined five interceptions against Cleveland and Indianapolis. If Nix and the offense can avoid giving the ball away, Denver will increase its odds of winning the time of possession battle — which could be the determining factor on Thursday night.
“We just finished through a stretch where we played a number of teams where there was a lot of evidence of turnovers, not just by one individual,” Payton said. “Now we’re hitting a stretch where it’s a little different.”
Who has the edge?
When Broncos run
The Broncos have serious issues with their running back rotation. The trio of Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime combined for 49 yards on 18 attempts against the Colts — one of the league’s worst run defenses. Los Angeles has allowed 4.7 yards per rush — tied for 24th. Edge: Chargers
When Broncos pass
Since Week 12, Broncos quarterback Bo Nix has thrown for 697 yards, six touchdowns and five interceptions while completing 57.3% of his pass attempts. The Chargers run zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the league (78.9%), according to Next Gen Stats. Nix has a completion percentage of 69.8% with 12 touchdowns and eight interceptions against that coverage scheme. Edge: Chargers
When Chargers run
Los Angeles’ run game has struggled since JK Dobbins sustained a knee injury against the Ravens last month. In the last three games, the Chargers have averaged 60.6 yards on the grounds. Denver gave up 149 rush yards to the Colts last week — the most this season. But overall, the Broncos have been one of the most dominant run defenses in the league. They have allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns (24) and second-fewest yards per carry (3.9). Edge: Broncos
When Chargers pass
Rookie Ladd McConkey has been one of the best wideouts from the 2024 draft class. The second-round pick has 63 catches for 873 yards and five touchdowns in 13 games. He’s had three games with at least 100 yards. Surtain has allowed a passer rating of 47.7 when targeted. He was targeted four times by the Colts last week, allowing just one catch for 4 yards and intercepting a pass in the fourth quarter. Edge: Broncos
Special teams
Week 15 was a special teams clinic for the Broncos. Riley Dixon booted three punts inside the 20-yard line while wideout Marvin Mims Jr. averaged 32.3 yards on three punt return attempts and had a 61-yarder in the fourth quarter. The Chargers have allowed 9.4 yards per punt return — 18th in the league. Edge: Broncos
Coaching
Both Sean Payton and Jim Harbaugh have brought hope to their respective franchises. Denver is one win away from clinching a playoff berth and could finish as high as the fifth seed. Meanwhile, the Chargers are the seventh seed and are one win away from securing a winning season after recording just five victories last year. Both defenses have played at a high level for the majority of the season. Meanwhile, their offenses haven’t been great. Denver has struggled to run the ball. And the Chargers are near the bottom of the league in passing yards despite having one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Edge: Even
Tale of the tape
| Broncos | Chargers | |
|---|---|---|
| Total offense | 311.1 (22nd) | 302.1 (26th) |
| Rush offense | 108.4 (20th) | 105.8 (23rd) |
| Pass offense | 202.7 (23rd) | 196.4 (25th) |
| Points per game | 24.0 (T-10th) | 21.0 (20th) |
| Total defense | 315.3 (8th) | 336.7 (15th) |
| Run defense | 98.6 (5th) | 125.1 (19th) |
| Pass defense | 216.7 (16th) | 211.6 (10th) |
| Points allowed | 17.6 (T-1st) | 17.6 (T-1st) |
(Click here to view table in mobile.)
By the numbers
86.1: Passer rating for Broncos QB Bo Nix.
2: Touchdown receptions for Broncos WR Marvin Mims Jr.
3: Interceptions caught by Broncos S Brandon Jones
90: Tackles recorded by Broncos ILB Cody Barton
3.5: Yard per carry for Broncos RB Javonte Williams.
Bet on it
Gus Edwards under 34.5 rushing yards: The Los Angeles running back is not Jonathan Taylor. Edwards has averaged 25.5 yards in the last four games. The most rushing yards the former Ravens running back has recorded in a game was 59 during the Chargers’ Week 2 win over the Panthers. Denver’s defense shouldn’t have a problem containing Edwards on Thursday.
Devaughn Vele under 31.5 receiving yards: Denver’s rookie wideout has totaled one catch for 16 yards on five targets in the last two games. Against the Colts, Vele didn’t have a single catch. The former Utah standout has had his moments but over the past two weeks, his production has gone down tremendously. That trend could continue against Los Angeles’ solid defense.
Post predictions
Parker Gabriel, beat writer: Broncos 23, Chargers 20
Sean Payton called his shot. He wanted this game flexed to Thursday night. He wanted his team to get another rep in prime time. He looked at the way everything set up and thought this played into Denver’s hands this week and next against Cincinnati. And he’s got a team that’s fully buying what he’s selling. If they rise to the occasion, postseason football is back in Broncos Country.
Ryan McFadden, beat writer: Broncos 17, Chargers, 13
Los Angeles has lost two straight and is coming off one of its worst performances of the season against Tampa Bay. At the same time, Denver is banged up. Even if Pat Surtain II plays, Denver’s depth on the defensive line might be tested with injuries to John Franklin-Myers and D.J. Jones. The Broncos have shown they can win games in a multitude of ways. Despite their limitations, they will figure out a way to win on Thursday Night Football.
Troy Renck, columnist: Broncos 19, Chargers 16
The Chargers want a rock fight. Their defense remains strong, even with a recent slump, and they don’t turn the ball over. The Broncos’ path to an upset is scoring first and leading at halftime. The Chargers’ passing attack is not equipped to chase. Broncos Country, say thank you to Wil Lutz. You are going to the playoffs.
Sean Keeler, columnist: Chargers 23, Broncos 18
Too soon. No, really. Too soon. It’s never ideal to go marching into Jim Harbaugh’s backyard — well, technically Stan Kroenke’s backyard — in a short week. But doing so while Pat Surtain II, Riley Moss, D.J. Jones, John Franklin-Myers and Jaleel McLaughlin are all some degree of banged up feels like courting trouble in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Want more Broncos news? Sign up for the Broncos Insider to get all our NFL analysis.