Chargers (2-2) at Broncos (3-2)
When: Sunday, 2:05 p.m. MT
Where: Empower Field at Mile High Stadium
Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/CBS
Line: Broncos +3
Broncos-Chargers series: Denver is 72-55-1 in 128 regular-season games dating back to 1960; the Broncos won 16-9 in the last meeting, on Dec. 31, 2023, at home, and have won three in a row against its divisional foe.
In the spotlight: Bo Nix and Justin Herbert passed like ships in the night at Oregon
Before Justin Herbert and Bo Nix’s first matchup against each other in the NFL, they were one-time foes in college.
In 2019, Nix was thrown into the fire as a true freshman at Auburn. Starting in his first career game, he led then-No. 16 Tigers against then-No. 11 Oregon, and showcased the resiliency that made him an attractive target for the Broncos five years later.
Down 21-6 with under 10 minutes to go in the third quarter, Nix engineered three straight scoring drives to pull off an upset. First, he completed an 11-yard touchdown pass to Eli Stove. After cutting the deficit down to one in the fourth quarter, Nix’s heroics were on display in the closing seconds.
Auburn was positioned in Oregon territory when Nix threw a 26-yard touchdown pass to Seth Williams with nine seconds left, capitalizing on an 11-play, 60-yard scoring drive, which secured a 27-21 victory.
Nix finished the game completing 13 of 31 passes for 177 yards, two touchdowns and a pair of interceptions while carrying the ball seven times for 42 yards. Meanwhile, Herbert — in his final season with the Ducks — threw for 242 yards and a touchdown.
“I still remember them being one of the best defenses I played,” Nix said. “Justin had a great game himself. It came down to the wire, and it was just a really good college football game that day.”
Time moved on, and Herbert was drafted by the Chargers in the first round of the 2020 draft and became one of the most prolific passers in the league. Nix played three seasons at Auburn before following in Herbert’s footsteps at Oregon, playing the final two years of his college career in Eugene.
On Wednesday, Nix said he and Herbert never had a close relationship but admired him coming to Oregon because of the standard he set.
“(Herbert) played for a while at Oregon, went through some tough times, and battled through it,” Nix said. “He’s one of those guys you look up to playing at Oregon, and now he’s been in the league for several years. I’ve been watching him and he’s been doing great things. So it’ll be fun watching him live and seeing him again.”
Herbert left Oregon as the program’s all-time leader in pass completions (827) and pass attempts (1,293). He also finished second in Oregon history in TD passes (95) and passing yards (10,541).
Nix eventually set his own records while wearing the No. 10 jersey.
In 2023, Nix was named a Heisman Trophy finalist after shattering the program’s single-season records for completions (364), passing yards (4,508) and touchdown passes (45). Nix played alongside Herbert’s brother and tight end, Patrick, who had 15 catches for 196 yards and three touchdowns during that season that saw the Ducks go 12-2 but lose the Pac-12 title game.
“I watched Oregon all those years and it was awesome to see (its) success, especially (Nix),” Herbert told reporters this week. “I have nothing but respect for him.”
Who has the edge?
When Broncos run
Broncos starting running back Javonte Williams seems to be finding his rhythm. He has totaled 138 rushing yards over the last two games, including 13 carries for 61 yards and five catches for 50 yards in the win over Las Vegas. The Chargers, however, will be a major test. Los Angeles is one of the best run defenses in the league, allowing just 3.9 yards per rush. Edge: Chargers
When Broncos pass
Bo Nix had one of his best games of the season against the Raiders, completing 19 of 27 passes for 206 yards and three total touchdowns, including two scores in the fourth quarter. Still, he has work to do with his accuracy and footwork. Nix is 10 for 35 (28.6%) on intermediate throws (10-19 yards) and 6 for 16 on attempts (37.5%) more than 20 yards, according to Next Gen Stats. Los Angeles is 28th in pressures (43) and 24th in sacks (11) but has allowed only three touchdown passes. Edge: Chargers
When Chargers run
Chargers running back JK Dobbins picked apart struggling teams to start the season but has now run into a wall. After running for at least 130 yards against the Raiders and Panthers in the first two weeks, he rushed for 76 yards on 29 carries in losses to Pittsburgh and Kansas City. Denver has held opponents under 100 rushing yards in two of its last three games. The Broncos held Las Vegas to five yards on the ground in the second half after allowing 110 in the first two quarters. Edge: Broncos
When Chargers pass
Chargers star quarterback Justin Herbert hasn’t thrown from more than 200 yards in a game this season, while his leading wide receiver, Ladd McConkey, is averaging 44 receiving yards per contest. Denver has the third most sacks (19) and pressures (75) in the league. Broncos edge rusher Nik Bonitto has recorded a sack in three straight games. Edge: Broncos
Special teams
Denver’s special teams could be the deciding factor in this game. Against the Raiders, the Broncos had solid returns from Marvin Mims Jr. and Tremon Smith. Mims is first in the league in punt return yards (153). Given how well the Chargers defense has played, the Broncos will need similar production to create momentum. The Chargers have allowed 76 punt return yards through four games. Edge: Broncos
Coaching
Sean Payton said the characteristics of a Harbaugh-led team are they play smart, protect the ball and are balanced on offense. Harbaugh got off to a strong 2-0 start before dropping two in a row to playoff-caliber opponents. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman has his fingerprints all over the offense. While the Chargers have a top-10 rushing attack, Herbert hasn’t been asked to use his arm a lot. There are still question marks about how Payton has run the offense. But defensive coordinator Vance Joseph and special teams coordinator Ben Kotwica have their respective units rolling. Edge: Even
Tale of the tape
Broncos
Chargers
Total offense
270.6 (28th)
263.8 (29th)
Rush offense
106.8 (21st)
127.8 (9th)
Pass offense
163.8 (28th)
136.0 (31st)
Points per game
19.2 (T-22nd)
17.0 (28th)
Total defense
271.2 (3rd)
282.5 (5th)
Run defense
111.4 (10th)
94.0 (6th)
Pass defense
159.8 (5th)
188.5 (10th)
Points allowed
14.6 (2nd)
12.5 (1st)
*Stats from 2024 | Can’t see on mobile? Click here.
By the numbers
27: Pressures from Broncos DE Zach Allen.
48.3: Passer rating allowed by Broncos CB Pat Surtain II.
224: Receiving yards for Broncos WR Courtland Sutton.
5: Passing touchdowns for Chargers QB Justin Herbert.
46: Career wins for Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh.
Bet on it
Ladd McConkey under 48.5 receiving yards: Los Angeles’ rookie wideout has recorded more than 50 receiving yards only once. The Broncos starting outside cornerbacks, Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss, have been playing at a high level. Both players have allowed fewer than 50 receiving yards in the last four games. Surtain has given up 54 yards total during the three-game win streak. Whether McConkey is lined up against Surtain or Moss, he should have a hard time creating production on Sunday.
Bo Nix under 183.5 passing yards: Nix threw for at least 200 yards for the second time this season during last week’s win over the Raiders. Given how the Chargers have been solid defensively, it’s expected that the Broncos will rely on the run game. Also, Denver’s offense has relied heavily on the short passing game, making it safe to bet the under on Nix’s passing yard total.
Post predictions
Parker Gabriel, beat writer: Broncos 20, Chargers 17
Line these rosters and this game up and it feels like a Los Angeles win. Jim Harbaugh’s done good work with the Bolts already and it should pay dividends for Justin Herbert over time. They’re coming off a bye. They could get their starting tackles back. They’re more dedicated to actually running the football. They’re favored on the road for a reason. But sometimes you just ride the wave. The Broncos defense looks capable of gliding down the barrel of a big breaker for a while still. At some point, the offense is going to have to win this team a game. Would certainly be interesting if Denver finds its way to 4-2.
Ryan McFadden, beat writer: Broncos 13, Chargers 10
This game won’t be pretty. We are not going to get a Broncos-Jets type of matchup, but anticipate a low-scoring contest that’s dictated by the run game. As long as Nix stays away from turning the ball over like he has in the last three weeks, Denver should be able to come away with a win. It’s hard to bet against Denver’s defense at the moment.
Troy Renck, columnist: Broncos 17, Chargers 15
Everything is suddenly in front of the Broncos. They have won three straight and can post victories in their first two AFC West games for the first time since 2017. No team accomplishes its goals without playing well in the division. The Broncos understand this game does not have the juice of the Raiders, but it is equally important. The sets up as a grimy, hand-in-the-ground cage match given the excellence of both defenses. In the end, a Justin Herbert interception by Denver’s secondary — Riley Moss is my bet — will set up a game-winning field goal.
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Sean Keeler, columnist: Broncos 16, Chargers 13
Justin Herbert is playing with a brace. Bo Nix is playing with a swagger. A lot’s been made about Joey Bosa against a beat-up Broncos offensive line, but even with career Bronco-killer Maxx Crosby (two sacks) all up in his face, Nix still moved the sticks with his legs when he had to, including an 11-yard run for a first down to take the wind out of some silver-and-black pirates’ sails. Bo grows. And glows. Again.
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