Denver Post Broncos writer Parker Gabriel posts his Broncos Mailbag weekly during the season and periodically during the offseason. Click here to submit a question.
Hi Parker. It feels like coach Sean Payton is delaying the inevitable. Audric Estime is RB1, Jaleel McLaughlin is RB2 (change of pace back), and Javonte Williams is RB3 (third-down back). Do you agree? Is there some reason we can’t see why Payton isn’t pulling the trigger?
— Brandon Brown, Rogers, Minn.
Hey Brandon, thanks for writing in and for the good question.
Sean Payton clearly has Estime’s role on his mind. The first question he got during his Monday news conference was about fellow rookie Devaughn Vele’s role and he started talking about Estime. Then he laughed when he realized and gave great insight on Vele, too.
But here’s what he said at one point Monday about Estime: “With Audric, I’ve got to continue to find his role because I feel like he can be that same type of impact player (as Vele) at a different position and we’re just not seeing it yet because of the opportunities.”
Payton’s talked quite a bit about how he’s not typically used three running backs in the past. Sunday, in particular, he noted that the way the Raiders played defensively was not conducive to running the ball much.
Against Atlanta, Williams ran hard and produced right from the start, so there was no reason to get away from that.
It certainly seemed after the Kansas City game like Estime was going to take over the top spot, but instead, the rotation has continued. That’s not a great setup for fantasy football players, but I don’t see it as a bad thing for the Broncos.
If Williams has it going, let him go. If he gets off to a slow start Monday night, see what the kid’s got. The Broncos have been healthy all year but having an extra player who you’re trying to get into the rotation is good insurance in case there’s an injury.
Long-term, it’s pretty clear Estime is the leader in the clubhouse. He’s got the most upside and it would hardly be shocking if he got more work down the stretch.
If you’re winning, though, you don’t have to force change just for the sake of change. It’ll be a really interesting situation to track over the coming weeks.
How bad is Riley Moss’ injury? That looked super gnarly. We really need him if we’re going to make a playoff push. But if he’s out for a few games (or the rest of the season), who takes over? And is there anyone out there we could sign? Maybe Xavien Howard or Patrick Peterson?
— Mike, Denver
Hey Mike, thanks for the question. What we know on Moss’ injury is what Payton said after the game. It’s an MCL and it’s not serious, which is great news for Moss and the Broncos.
Will he play Monday night? We’ll have a better feel for that late in the week, but Payton said there was some conversation about Moss going back into the game against the Raiders.
Regardless of whether he misses any time or some time, I’d be surprised if the Broncos looked outside the building for an answer. They’ve been more than willing to have veteran Levi Wallace step in and play and they’ve got a pair of young players in third-year man Damarri Mathis and rookie Kris Abrams-Draine they could turn to as well if needed. It’s a place Denver has enviable depth and the guess here is they’d lean on that rather than dropping a new guy in at this stage of the season.
The Broncos, in any event, will be very happy if they don’t have to consider any of those options and Moss is back either against Cleveland or on the other side of the bye week.
Hello Parker! You just wrote a nice article about our last draft class. But looking further, we just extended three players from the 2021 draft (among them a seventh-round pick and one from Division III football). Nik Bonitto looks to be next after being the first Bronco to reach 10 sacks in a season. Riley Moss is doing great as the second cornerback. Luke Wattenberg more than replaced Lloyd Cushenburry, and the list goes on. George Paton did all of this with only two first-round picks (is anyone still blaming him for taking Pat Surtain II over Justin Fields?) in four years. He took a lot of grief over the Russell Wilson-Nathaniel Hackett pairing, but don’t you feel his contribution in building the team as a whole has been underappreciated?
— Yoann, Beine-Nauroy, France
Hey Yoann, thanks for writing and for the kind words. And I particularly appreciate this question. As I was writing that story about the rookie class I kept considering going back further to 2023. Or maybe 2022. But then the 2021 class is obviously critical to this team’s success, too. So on and so forth. Eventually, I just stuck with the 2024 class in particular.
The reality is every team is unique — the Broncos’ 2021 and 2024 classes clearly are going to be important to what they do long-term — but this is also just the way it has to be done in the NFL. You’ve got to build through the draft and you’ve got to find good players every year.
Overall, I think you’re right that the Broncos have built a stronger, deeper roster than they got credit for before this season. Is it an elite roster from a talent and depth standpoint? Not at the moment, but they’ve got a better foundation in place than perhaps most realized.
Perhaps that’s because it hasn’t been so much about finding superstars, but rather filling out a roster with less fanfare.
They haven’t had much premium capital in recent years — due in large part to the franchise’s decision to trade it away for Russell Wilson and Sean Payton — but they’ve found quality players anyway.
They haven’t hit on a Day 3 star like Detroit with WR Amon-Ra St. Brown in 2021, Seattle with Riq Woolen in 2022 or the Rams with both WR Pua Nacua and DL Kobie Turner in 2023.
But in 2023 when they only had five draft picks, they found three undrafted free agents who are contributors this year in RB Jaleel McLaughlin, TE Nate Adkins and OT Alex Palczewski. The year before they got nickel Ja’Quan McMillian undrafted.
There are still questions about the 2022 and 2023 classes as a whole. Bonitto is turning into the kind of player who helps make a draft class and Wattenberg’s a solid starter, but the rest of the group has had limited impact and now three players (TE Greg Dulcich, WR Montrell Washington and CB Faion Hicks) are gone.
The 2023 class is too young to put a final grade on, but Denver needs more from Marvin Mims Jr. and Drew Sanders (as he gets healthy) as their top two picks in that class.
Overall, though, Yoann, you’re right. Paton and the Broncos’ front office have done a nice job of finding solid players and doing so in multiple ways — the draft and college free agency, but also trading for John Franklin-Myers and Wil Lutz and putting together back-to-back high-quality free agent classes.
What do the coaches need to do to help Bo Nix avoid knockdowns on some passes? I believe he had three this past game.
— Scott, Highlands Ranch
Yeah good question, Scott. During the broadcast, CBS’ team noted that Nix is up into double-digit passes batted this year, which is among the most in the NFL.
Nix, like many quarterbacks these days, does throw from a variety of arm slots and some are lower than others. He’ll do the shortstop-esque thing where he grabs the snap and slings it out to the perimeter. But I don’t know that those are the commonalities in the passes getting knocked down.
All three Sunday against the Raiders were on near-horizontal throws. The Raiders’ rushers clearly emphasized getting hands up if it looked like Nix was going to throw short. And he’s thrown short a lot this season. It’s a good way to combat a quarterback who wants to get the ball out quickly. Nix’s 2.68 seconds average time to throw against Vegas, per Next Gen Stats, was his third-fastest of the season.
Like a lot of things, this is probably just the learning curve of having a rookie QB. He’ll continue to learn the exact timing, where to put the football, how to throw around those defenders, etc. as he sees those types of looks more and more. In college there probably weren’t a lot of defenders getting to those positions and getting their hands up as quickly as happens in the pros.
In your estimation, can the Broncos run the table and win their next five games to close out the season? Do they have what it takes to go on this type of run with a rookie quarterback? If not, how many of the five do the Broncos win?
— Ed Helinski, Auburn, N.Y.
Ed’s asking the Run The Table question each week at this point, which is cool with me. Thanks for writing in, as always.
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You’re asking if I think the Broncos will end the regular season on a seven-game winning streak and with a 12-5 record, which I don’t. But that would be mighty impressive if it happened.
My skepticism on this front is not so much about a rookie quarterback but more that it’s just really hard to do. And the Broncos have some tough ones left on the schedule, like trips to Los Angeles and Cincinnati and a Week 18 game against Kansas City that the Chiefs might need in their pursuit of the No. 1 seed.
I do, though, think they can finish 3-2 and get to 10 wins on the year.
There’s still a lot of football left to go deep into exact scenarios, but this much we know: Indianapolis and Cincinnati already have seven losses each. So if the Broncos get to 10 wins and get there by beating the Colts and Bengals, then the only other team currently behind them in the standings that can get to 10 wins is Miami, which is currently 5-6.
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