Denver Post Broncos writer Parker Gabriel posts his Broncos Mailbag weekly during the season and periodically during the offseason. Click here to submit a question.
A couple of weeks ago, Bo Nix had a game where he couldn’t hit the side of the proverbial barn. (Against Kansas City in Week 18) he couldn’t miss. What was the reason for the difference?
— Roger Brisnehan, Westminster
Hey Roger, thanks for writing in and getting us started on this postseason week. Without a doubt, the defense has something to do with the differences. Kansas City was playing without several of its top guys. Next Gen Stats put Steve Spagnuolo’s group at about half its normal blitz rate, which led to a minuscule 9.4% pressure rate against Nix. That and throwing to your guys against mostly backups is going to make any quarterback much more comfortable.
Certainly, there was a stretch of three games — all wins, incidentally — where Nix got a little bit sideways down the stretch. During that stretch against Las Vegas, Cleveland and Indianapolis, Nix threw six touchdowns but also five interceptions (add in four over the first two weeks, and his turnovers have come in bunches). In those games, he completed 57.2% of his passes and had a passer rating of 75.5. Not great.
Over the final three games, Nix threw nine touchdowns and one pick, had a passer rating of 126 and, of course, the Broncos lost twice before knocking off the far-from-motivated Chiefs.
Another element here is just that Nix, for as much good as he’s done for the Broncos this year, is still a rookie. There are going to be ups and downs. He has done a good job of smoothing a lot of that stuff out and I’m sure he’d say that the others in the Broncos’ quarterback room and the coaching staff overall have played roles in that. It’s what quarterbacks coach Davis Webb set out to do from the start.
Overall, Nix’s completion percentage is 66.3%, which is No. 15 in the NFL. Starting Week 5, he’s been at 68.3%, which would check in at No. 9. Some of the advanced metrics aren’t quite as rosy. Per Next Gen Stats, his completion percentage over expected is No. 32 in the NFL and his expected points added per dropback is 17th.
To your point, Roger, the three games referenced earlier are all in Nix’s bottom eight CPOE performances of the year, while his two highest marks have come the past two weeks.
It seems like Bo Nix plays better when Sean Payton simplifies the offense. After the bye week, Nix looked like he did early in the season. Is Payton simply giving Nix too much to process, or have defenses figured out how to stifle the intermediate passing game?
— Keep it Simple Sam, Clarksville, Tenn.
Tennessee KISS, thanks for writing. I’m not sure if it’s as simple — heh — as you make it out to be and I’m also not sure if it’s Payton at the center of this conversation. His game plans and his approach have a major influence week to week, but I wonder if it’s more about Nix himself keeping it simple.
Obviously, it’s not possible from the outside to know for sure what the intention, thought process, execution and grade for every play of every game is. But watching Nix play all season, I thought that there were times against Cleveland and Indianapolis, in particular, when he just pushed the aggressive stick a little too far.
It’s a fine line because Nix also takes criticism for how often he throws short and all of that. We’ve seen that he’s got the ability to push the ball down the field. When he threw those three interceptions against the Colts, the thing that jumped out was that they were all on ill-advised passes. Nix has definitely put the ball in harm’s way at times this year — his 12 picks are tied for fourth-most in the league and they’ve come in clumps — but overall I think you’d have to say that he’s done a pretty darn good job for a rookie. His overall interception percentage of 2.1% is right at the league average and he hasn’t lost a fumble all season, so he’s not a turnover-prone player.
Defenses are going to make Nix do things that aren’t at the top of his comfort list — well, except for Kansas City on Sunday. They’ll want to make him push the ball out to the sideline and down the field. We’ve seen him do those things well at times and also make some mistakes.
Then, once the offseason hits and teams get a longer stretch to study the 2024 tape, they’ll come back with an updated plan for trying to make Nix uncomfortable. It’ll be up to him to find ways to counter-punch in Year 2 and beyond.
In your opinion, how do the Broncos match up against Buffalo? And what advantages might the Broncos have?
— Ed Helinski, Auburn, N.Y.
Good question, Ed. Obviously, the Broncos are underdogs for a reason. Buffalo is 13-4, looked like potentially the best team in football for a while, and is rolling out one of the great quarterbacks of this era in Josh Allen.
One thing that jumps out is that Buffalo’s balance — again, in large part because of Allen and because of an offensive line that’s playing at a high level.
Allen’s put up terrific numbers. His 12 rushing touchdowns are critical and help power a group that has an NFL-best 32 rushing scores overall.
Combine that with an NFL-low 14 sacks allowed, and you’ve got the kind of high-floor, low-mistake operation that is antithetical to the way Allen played early in his career. Except you’ve still got the explosiveness and big play ability intact.
Then defensively, Buffalo’s got the best turnover rate in the NFL at 17.5% of drives.
So, they don’t give the ball away, they’re balanced offensively, they’ve got a high-grade MVP candidate at quarterback and their defense takes the football away.
It actually does make for some interesting good-on-good matchups based on what the Broncos do well. They get after the quarterback as well or better than any team in football. They’ve been good defensively against the run and the pass. They don’t turn it over much offensively.
Allen, then, is the big differentiator. The Broncos have, like a lot of teams, struggled against the very best quarterbacks in the game this year. Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow tortured them in losses and Justin Herbert led a big-time comeback in Los Angeles a couple of weeks ago. They played Patrick Mahomes better than most and still came up short at Arrowhead Stadium because of the blocked field goal.
Bottom line: It’s a compelling matchup in a lot of ways, but it is a monumental challenge for Denver to go on the road and get a win.
Hey Parker, the Broncos have shown over the long run that running backs can be had deeper into a draft. Although I agree that we need a much-improved running game in the future to be able to control how games go, I would argue for maintaining strength along the line and in the middle passing game. Michigan’s tight end (Colston Loveland) is a versatile blocker and receiver and a great middle option in the passing game. After that, an inside linebacker is needed to help control the run on the other side of the ball and keep teams from owning the middle of our defense in the passing game as well. I think that should be round one and round two if available. What do you think of that idea?
— Scott Sharpe, Apple Valley, Calif.
I know it’s a little early to be talking about it, but what should the Broncos do with their running back situation next year? It didn’t seem like we ever had one guy we could rely on this year as our RB1. Javonte Williams doesn’t look like the beast he was in the past. Jaleel McLaughlin has moments but they’re fleeting. Same with Audric Estime. Are we looking for someone in the draft? Are we looking at free agency? What do you think?
— Mark, Arvada
Scott and Mark had related questions and thoughts about the running back position in general and some interesting ideas all around, so let’s take the questions together. The running back conversation is more than just about getting four yards on first down. It’s about finding a player who’s a matchup problem for defenses. This is what Payton refers to all the time as a “Joker.” The high-end guys are easy to pinpoint, right? Jahmyr Gibbs in Detroit. Christian McCaffrey in San Francisco. Bijan Robinson in Atlanta rushed for 1,400-plus yards and also caught 61 passes. Those guys were also all high draft picks, but there are players across the league who make a real impact out of the backfield.
Even Chase Brown, the second-year Cincinnati player from the University of Illinois, did a lot of productive things against the Broncos. He hurt his ankle against Denver but finished the year with 990 rushing yards and 54 catches despite playing in an offense that has elite talent at receiver and a good tight end.
It’s too early to say exactly what the Broncos will do at running back, but McLaughlin’s been the starter for a few weeks now, so that tells us at least something about how he stacks up compared to the other guys in the room. They’ve clearly got plans for the future with Estime.
Williams is in the final year of his rookie contract and is a free agent this spring.
Draft, free agency and trade are likely all on the table, but finding somebody in the draft — folks that know a lot more about the draft class than I do say it’s shaping up to be a really good group of running backs — seems most likely.
As for Scott’s other points, totally agree on Loveland. Whether it’s him, Penn State’s Tyler Warren or somebody else later in the draft, it’s a key offseason position to address. Oh, and Cincinnati tight end Mike Gesicki is a free agent, too. If the Bengals spend big to keep Tee Higgins at receiver, perhaps he hits the market. I’d wager he made an impression on the Broncos with his 10-catch day late last month.
Inside linebacker, yes absolutely. It’s the one position on the Broncos’ defense that’s been anything resembling a weak spot. Alex Singleton’s injury hurt there, but they need more athleticism and more speed in the middle of the field.
In the upcoming 2025 NFL draft, what positions do the Broncos need to draft?
— Douglas Lancaster, Goshen, Ind.
The three positions referenced above, for sure, in running back, tight end and inside linebacker. You can never have too much defensive front-seven talent and perhaps the Broncos will look toward some future planning on the defensive interior. Teams always swear they don’t draft for need, but it will be interesting to see what the Broncos think of the defensive line talent in this draft class. There are some guys who will be really good players who could be sitting there in the first couple of rounds, but it might not be Denver’s foremost need.
The Broncos could use more depth at safety and it would be interesting to see them take a mid-round (or maybe even earlier) swing at receiver, too.
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