In the last 10 weeks, Bo Nix has gone from being discussed as a potential draft bust to the very top of the NFL offensive rookie of the year debate.
Since Denver’s 26-7 win at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3, Nix has played at a high level, throwing for 2,164 yards, 16 touchdowns and two interceptions while completing 66.1% of his passes. As Nix has drastically improved from the first two weeks, so have the Broncos, who are 7-3 in their last 10 games and in the thick of the playoff hunt.
Here are 10 interesting numbers from Nix’s 10-week stretch:
4: The former Oregon standout has completed at least 70% of pass attempts in four of Denver’s past 10 games. In Denver’s win over the Falcons in Week 11, Nix completed 84.8% (28 of 33) — the third-highest completion percentage by a rookie in league history with a minimum of 30 attempts. Nix has had a completion percentage of more than 70% in two of Denver’s last three games.
117.5: Broncos head coach Sean Payton doesn’t think Nix’s arm has gotten stronger since college. He thinks it was underestimated.
One of the biggest storylines during Nix’s rookie campaign has been his ability to make plays on deep throws. Since Week 3, Nix has gone 16 for 38 (42.1%) with 413 yards, four touchdowns and a 117.5 passer rating — fourth-best on attempts with 20-plus air yards, according to NFL’s Next Gen Stats.
“In his college reports, I didn’t hear ‘darts’ or ‘down-the-field’ or ‘long arms’ or any of that stuff,” Payton said. “… Our pundits’ eyes in the beginning were weaker.”
29.7: While Nix has started hitting on the deep passing game, he has also given opponents problems on intermediate throws (passes 10-19 yards downfield). He has the ninth-best total expected points added (29.7). Nix is 35 for 66 with 641 yards, five touchdowns and a pick on intermediate attempts in the last 10 weeks.
71.4%: Nix has done a solid job at throwing against zone coverage, Nix has completed 72.8% of his pass attempts (35 for 49) in Denver’s last 10 matchups. He also has 1,605 passing yards, nine touchdowns and a pick with a rating of 104.1. Nix has the fifth-best completion percentage and sixth-best passer rating against zone defenses since Week 3. The 24-year-old faced zone on 52.3% of his dropbacks against the Raiders last week, going 17 for 21 for 170 yards.
Against man coverage, he has gone 50 for 98 (51%) with 559 yards, seven touchdowns and an interception. Nix has a passer rating of 87.9 on 114 dropbacks against that coverage scheme.
100.4: Nix has completed 53 of 93 passes for 655 yards, six touchdowns an interception and a passer rating of 100.4 on third down, according to Next Gen Stats. He has the fourth-most passing yards on third down during this 10-game stretch, trailing the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes, Bengals’ Joe Burrow and Texans’ C.J. Stroud. Nix has relied heavily on rookie wideout Devaughn Vele on third-down situations. He has targeted Vele nine times, resulting in nine completions for 87 yards and a touchdown.
680: Nix and Courtland Sutton have been one of the best quarterback-wide receiver duos in the league. Nix has thrown for 680 yards and five touchdowns to Sutton in the past 10 games. The yard total is fourth behind Washington’s Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin (689), Minnesota’s Sam Darnold and Justin Jefferson (747), and Cincinnati’s Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase (959) during that span. Another interesting statistic from the Nix-Sutton connection: Nix has targeted Sutton eight times on go routes, resulting in seven completions for 158 yards and three touchdowns since Week 5, according to Next Gen Stats.
8-0: Since Week 10, Nix has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 8-0 — the best in the league during that span. Nix and Dallas’ Dak Prescott are the only rookie quarterbacks in NFL history to have eight-plus touchdowns and no interceptions over a three-game span, according to Next Gen Stats. Nix only has one turnover-worthy play in the last three weeks, according to Pro Football Focus. The site defines such plays as a pass that has a high percentage chance of being intercepted or an instance when a player does a poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbles.
Related Articles
Renck: The verdict is in: Broncos, Jerry Jeudy better off without each other
How dedication to dirty work helped Broncos’ Nik Bonitto grow from “blind dog” rookie to havoc-wreaking rusher
NFL Picks: A running back matchup for the ages between Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry highlights Week 13 slate
Broncos CB Riley Moss ruled out, WR Josh Reynolds questionable to play vs. Browns
Renck & File: Why is it so hard to hire an NFL head coach? From Hackett to Eberflus, 2022 class defined by incompetence
43: Nix has executed designed rollouts on 43 dropbacks — the most in the league since Week 3, according to Next Gen Stats. He has been effective those plays, completing 29 of 36 passes (80.6%) for 291 yards, three touchdowns and an interception.
45: While Nix’s pass production has gone up, his rushing totals have gone down. He has had 17 carries for 45 yards and a score in Denver’s last five games. During the first eight games of the year, he had 47 carries for 255 yards. Nix has totaled five rushing yards in two straight games. This isn’t a red flag. Nix still can beat opponents with his legs. But earlier in the season, Nix needed to use the ground game to create offensive rhythm. Now that he is improving as a passer, he doesn’t have to rely heavily on his legs to move the ball down the field.
5: Nix has thrown for 200-plus yards, two-plus touchdowns and no interceptions in five of the last 10 games. He has posted that stat line in three straight contests — tied for the longest such streak by a rookie since at least 1970, joining Stroud, Prescott and Gardner Minshew.
Want more Broncos news? Sign up for the Broncos Insider to get all our NFL analysis.