Somehow, the San Francisco 49ers playoff hopes are alive. It may feel absurd to believe that with a 6-8 record, the 49ers are clinging to a less than one percent chance to squeak in as the seventh seed in the Wild Card. It may be more absurd that they can still win the NFC West.
With three games remaining in their schedule, the 49ers need multiple dominoes to fall their way. Another way to put it is the San Francisco 49ers need a Christmas miracle to even sniff the playoffs. It is an uphill battle, and despite being improbable, it is not impossible.
Ahead of the 49ers’ Week 16 matchup against the Miami Dolphins, it is worth breaking down how San Francisco could find their way to playing playoff football for the fourth consecutive season.
How the West (could be) Won
Winning the NFC West is the least probable path to the playoffs. While it does not rely on a continental shift to happen, it does need a Week 18 rarity to come to fruition.
First and foremost, the 49ers will have to win their final three games of the season. Starting on Sunday, San Francisco has to beat the Miami Dolphins. Unfortunately, they will be without left tackle Trent Williams and running back Isaac Guerendo.
If they can find a way to get past Miami, the 49ers face their toughest test in the Detroit Lions. The Lions will be looking to avenge last season’s NFC Championship game loss. It is also not a bad assumption to think the Lions will want to kick the 49ers while they are down. The Lions will also be trying to clinch the NFC’s number-one seed, so they will be giving it 110%. A banged-up Detroit defense could keep the door open for the 49ers to secure the upset.
In the season finale, San Francisco hosts the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals won the teams’ first matchup 24-23 but are 1-3 in their last four games. The offense is sputtering, and divisional games are always a toss-up.
With the 49ers’ must-dos out of the way, the rest of the NFC West will need to fall on their sword to give San Francisco a chance.
The Cardinals will need to lose or tie against the Carolina Panthers this Sunday. The Seahawks (vs. Vikings, @ Bears) and Rams (@ Jets, vs. Cardinals) have to lose their next two games, setting up a final Week 18 between the two teams.
In Week 18, the 49ers would need the Seahawks vs. Rams game to end in a tie.
If that does not seem feasible, maybe the Wild Card route is more plausible.
49ers Playoffs: Last Chance Wild Card
Once again, the 49ers need to win their final three games. Now, on to the complicated yet more likely part, if there is one.
The Cardinals must lose to the Panthers in Week 16.
The Commanders (vs. Eagles and Falcons, @ Cowboys) and Rams (@ Jets, vs. Cardinals and Seahawks) would need to lose their final three games.
Finally, the Falcons will have to lose to the Giants and Panthers but defeat the Commanders in the next three weeks.
The San Francisco 49ers have less than one percent chance to make the playoff, and it is easy to see why. They need help, but until the 49ers are officially eliminated, to quote Lloyd Christmas, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance.”
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