Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has heard the criticism. He has seen the home run totals. He knows the All-Star conversation has shifted away from him.
The Toronto Blue Jays star isn’t interested in panicking.
“When I get hot, I’ll get hot,” Guerrero told MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson following Toronto’s series win over the Baltimore Orioles.
For most players, that statement might sound like blind confidence. For Guerrero, there is growing evidence that it may actually be a warning.
Despite entering June with only three home runs, several underlying metrics suggest Guerrero’s power outage may not last much longer.
Guerrero’s Results Don’t Match His Contact Quality
GettyVladimir Guerrero Jr. #27 of the Toronto Blue Jays reacts to striking out against the Tampa Bay Rays during the first inning in their MLB game at the Rogers Centre on May 11, 2026 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images)
The biggest surprise about Guerrero’s season isn’t his batting average. He’s still hitting .287 and getting on base at a respectable clip.
The shock comes from the lack of power.
After posting 44 home runs in 2025 and helping lead Toronto to the World Series, Guerrero entered Monday tied with utility players and backup catchers across baseball in home run production. For a hitter widely regarded as one of the game’s elite sluggers, that’s almost impossible to believe.
Yet the underlying profile paints a different picture.
Guerrero continues to rank among the hardest hitters in baseball. His average exit velocity remains well above league average, and he continues to generate hard contact at a rate that typically produces far more extra-base hits than he’s currently showing.
That aligns with Guerrero’s own assessment.
“I’ve been feeling good and I’ve been hitting the ball hard,” he told MLB.com. “At one point, the baseball is going to be good to me.”
Not every struggling hitter can point to bad luck. Guerrero can.
His batting average remains strong because he continues to square baseballs up consistently. The issue has been converting those swings into the type of damage that changes games.
The Blue Jays Need More Than Confidence
GettyVladimir Guerrero Jr. #27 of the Toronto Blue Jays high fives teammates after scoring a run against the Detroit Tigers during the top of the third inning at Comerica Park on May 17, 2026 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)
Toronto has climbed back into the American League Wild Card race despite receiving far less production from its franchise player than expected. The Blue Jays are beginning to get healthier, and players such as Nathan Lukes, Ernie Clement and Kazuma Okamoto have helped keep the offense afloat.
However, this team’s ceiling remains tied directly to Guerrero.
No lineup becomes dramatically more dangerous because a role player gets hot. Teams change when superstars start performing like superstars.
That’s why Guerrero’s recent comments may be more important than they initially appear.
He told MLB.com he feels better mechanically and has started pulling the ball in the air more often after working with Toronto’s hitting coaches. Those are exactly the adjustments many analysts have wanted to see from a hitter whose ground-ball tendencies have occasionally limited his power output.
The Blue Jays don’t necessarily need Guerrero to repeat his 44-home-run season.
They do need him to become Vladimir Guerrero Jr. again.
If his recent adjustments start translating into results, Toronto’s offense could look very different by the end of June. And if Guerrero is right about the hot streak that’s coming, the rest of the American League should pay attention.
The Blue Jays have stayed in the playoff race without their biggest star performing at his usual level.
Imagine what happens if he finally does.
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