Blackhawks’ best-case scenario next season is to be like Canadiens this season

Could the Blackhawks‘ 2025-26 season follow the path of the Canadiens’ 2024-25 season?

It’s possible. In fact, that probably represents a realistic best-case scenario for the Hawks next season as they seek to transition from rebuilding team to ascending team.

As recently as Dec. 15, the two teams weren’t far apart in the NHL hierarchy. The Canadiens, who haven’t finished a season with a winning record since 2018-19 — despite their bizarre 2021 Stanley Cup Final run — and finished bottom five in the league each of the last three seasons, were 11-16-3 at the time.

The Canadiens’ 40.5% goals ratio during five-on-five play ranked 31st and their 44.4% expected-goals ratio ranked 30th; they were actually below the Hawks in both categories. Their defense looked like a sieve, especially early on.

The past four months, however, have brought a stirring turnaround in Montreal. Coach Martin St. Louis’ team has gone 24-14-6 since Dec. 15 — the 11th-best record in the league during that span — with a 49.2% goals ratio and 49.1% expected-goals ratio.

The Canadiens’ dramatic 3-2 overtime win Tuesday against the Panthers maintained their two-point lead over the Blue Jackets and Rangers for the Eastern Conference’s final playoff spot, setting up an intense race to the finish. They coincidentally host the Hawks in their penultimate game April 14.

Youth has led the way. Their top four scorers are all age 25 or younger: stars Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield are entering their primes, former No. 1 overall pick Juraj Slafkovsky is a solid contributor and newcomer Lane Hutson, the Calder Trophy co-favorite, has generated one of the most prolific seasons by a rookie defenseman in recent history.

With that said, their roster is still nowhere near as young as the Hawks’ current ensemble, which features 17 players aged 25 or younger. Not all of those youngsters will make the opening roster next season, especially if Hawks general manager Kyle Davidson succeeds in bringing in a couple high-end players this summer, but many of them will.

It’s ambitious to imagine the Hawks’ ultra-young group developing and collectively learning how to win fast enough to push for a playoff spot next spring. They’re developing already, and big strides are expected over the next calendar year, but they’ll be starting from the basement in terms of learning how to win.

One key to the Hawks enjoying a Canadiens-esque season: either Artyom Levshunov or Sam Rinzel exploding onto the scene with a Hutson-esque individual season. Their playing styles are different than Hutson’s, but if one of those two young defenseman proves to be as good as Hutson has been — which will be a very tall task — the Hawks’ complexion will change quickly.

Another key: coaching. St. Louis has done an excellent job molding the Canadiens into a cohesive group with a clear identity. Hawks players, conversely, have maligned their lack of a clear identity this season. That’ll be a top priority for the permanent coach Davidson hires this summer to establish next season.

Even if the Hawks manage to check both of those boxes, the odds will still be against them making the playoffs. Resurgences as dramatic as the Canadiens’ are rare, and the Western Conference is tougher than the East right now.

It’s probably more likely the Hawks’ 2025-26 season will follow the path of the Ducks’ 2024-25 season. The Ducks are loaded with young talent — eight of their top 12 scorers (and their goalie) are 24 or younger — and are gradually improving, but they’re still 14 points out of a wild-card spot.

If everything came together like the Canadiens, though, the United Center atmosphere down the stretch next season would be almost as electric as the Bell Centre has been lately. And that’s tantalizing to imagine.