Every year when the legislature arrives at mid-May, it’s always tempting to look around, see the absence of real bicameral movement on legislation and conclude that nothing’s gonna happen in time for the scheduled May 31 adjournment.
Succumbing to that temptation this year may not be a bad bet, but things can change. Right now, though, evidence of major movement is super-slim.
The artificial intelligence packages in both chambers seem designed only to pass one chamber, and with every day that goes by, there’s less time to work out differences. Not coincidentally, lobbyists for the massive AI companies prefer it that way.
An accusation was made last week by a House Democrat that the Senate hadn’t kept the House informed about its AI plans, which was seen as more evidence of this year’s stark split between the two chambers. But some Senate Dems later told me they did reach out to people within House leadership.
Could something still happen? I never rule anything out.
But communication may be difficult in the wake of a House Democratic ally and lobbyist posting a leaked internal email from top Senate staff last week on Facebook. Very high-level folks in the Senate and the governor’s office were furious about the leak, which was designed to “prove” that the House was acting in concert with the Senate and the governor’s office on the megaprojects bill, which includes language for a new Bears sports complex in Arlington Heights. The email did no such thing, however, which further exacerbated the situation.
The proliferation of electricity-sucking data centers is a super-hot issue all over the country right now.
In Illinois, Gov. JB Pritzker used his State of the State Address in February to call for a two-year moratorium on state tax breaks for data centers. But that prompted trade unions to criticize the governor’s idea because it could lead to non-union data center construction jobs in Illinois and, more likely, in other states that have robust tax incentives and no labor protections.
As a poll I shared with you earlier this year showed, opposition to data centers is probably the one thing that unites almost all Illinoisans (and Americans) these days.
But data center regulatory efforts have stalled in the face of opposition, including from local government leaders, who want those abundant new property taxes without having to expand schools or other local services because completed centers have so few on-site employees.
A narrow bill may emerge dealing with transparency issues and maybe some other items. But it’s not lost on some that Florida’s Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis just signed a significant data center regulation bill into law.
One Illinois lobbyist complained last week that the governor’s “lack of engagement” was hindering progress on passing a bill here, according to Capitol News Illinois.
And then there’s the governor’s housing proposal, which has been met with fierce opposition by local mayors who oppose constraints on their zoning powers.
A lot more appears stalled right now, including an energy bill and a gaming bill, but you get the idea. Sometimes a spark occurs, and stuff starts moving again. Sometimes, stuff is set aside until more talks can be held over the summer. Sometimes, stuff just dies.
And unless progressives are successful at taxing wealthy individuals and giant corporations this year, the new state budget looks like it’ll basically be what’s known as a “maintenance” spending plan.
The Governor’s Office of Management and Budget and the legislature’s Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability both released revised revenue projections last week. The Governor’s Office of Management and Budget also released a spending report for this fiscal year, which is up a little more than initially budgeted.
For the coming fiscal year, which begins July 1, the office predicts the state will bring in $55.883 billion, which is $173 million below its last projection in February and just $210 million above its revised projected growth for the current fiscal year.
The fiscal year 27 forecast by the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability has the state bringing in $55.335 billion, which is $190 million below its own March forecast and a significant $573 million below its projected revenues for the current fiscal year.
Meeting somewhere in the middle, you’re looking at basically a no-growth year next year.
The governor’s budget office also released an update on state spending during this fiscal year. Outlays are over-budget by $261 million, which would be covered by the revenue increases projected by both agencies for the current year.
Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter, and CapitolFax.com.