Three weeks in, the Big Ten has more ghastly losses than impressive wins and a truckload of forgettable results.
Is Michigan as bad as it looked against Texas? Is USC as good as it looked against LSU? Could Indiana and Nebraska contend for a berth in the conference championship? Which team is the favorite to win the race for the cellar? (We see quite a few contenders.)
After a thorough examination of the results to date and repeated tossing of darts against the wall, the Hotline has re-ranked the teams prior to conference play ramping up this weekend.
Feel free to thank us later.
1. Ohio State: The only reason the Buckeyes won’t have a berth in the conference championship on the line in The Game is because they will have it locked up by the middle of November. (Previous projection: No. 1)
2. Penn State: The sample size is tiny and, admittedly, we could live to deeply regret believing in Drew Allar’s progress. But he was awfully sharp in Morgantown. (No. 3)
3. Oregon: The Ducks are as good as Ohio State when operating at peak efficiency, but we aren’t convinced they can reach their peak — or even approach it — often enough to avoid a bad loss. Or two. (No. 2)
4. Nebraska: The Huskers aren’t all the way back, but they are close enough to warrant a spot on the Big Ten’s top tier, especially given a schedule that does not include Penn State or Oregon. (No. 7)
5. USC: The Trojans have emerged as a trendy playoff pick based largely on the win over LSU. Also, the lineup of opponents isn’t nearly as stout as expected considering the early losses by Michigan, Washington and Notre Dame. (No. 6)
6. Indiana: Few teams in any conference have been more impressive (relative to expectations) than the Hoosiers, who were a big winner in the transfer portal with Ohio quarterback Kurtis Rourke. (No. 12)
7. Michigan: Even this might be too high for the defending national champions. We’ll know by the close of business Saturday afternoon. (No. 5)
8. Iowa: Combine the dissolution of divisions with the rise of Nebraska and the arrival of Oregon and USC and it would appear the Hawkeyes have lost ground in the Big Ten hierarchy. (No. 4)
9. Illinois: The ceiling is sixth place, and the floor is 12th place. We split the difference and balanced a quality win over Kansas with a difficult lineup of conference road games. (No. 14)
10. Michigan State: The Week 2 victory at Maryland should not be under-valued considering it was the most difficult test of Aidan Chiles’ young career. So far, the Spartans are very Jonathan Smith. (No. 13)
11. Rutgers: One of the toughest teams to project. Not only is the sample size small, it’s weak: Howard, Akron and nothing else. (No. 9)
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12. Washington: The outlook would be a tad brighter if the Huskies played all the middle-tier teams on their schedule (Indiana, Rutgers, Iowa) at home, instead of on the road. As things stand, there just aren’t many wins available. (No. 11)
13. Maryland: The defense collapsed down the stretch against Michigan State. We expect that to become a recurring theme. (No. 10)
14. Minnesota: Probably well past the time that we should mention there are likely to be several ties in the conference standings. The Gophers, for instance, could finish in a four-way deadlock for 11th, but their general position will be somewhere in the bottom half. (No. 15)
15. Wisconsin: The forecast was getting dark in Madison before quarterback Tyler Van Dyke tore his ACL. At this point, the wheels could come off. (No. 8)
16. Northwestern: Goodness, there are a lot of teams in this conference. (No. 17)
17. UCLA: Worse than expected with a schedule that’s even tougher than projected. Other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln? (No. 16)
18. Purdue: Just lost at home by 59 points to a team that lost at home to Northern Illinois. On the bright side: Hoops season starts Nov. 4. (No. 18)
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