Welcome to a new weekly feature on the Hotline. We’ll break down Big 12 basketball using key metrics (NET rankings, KenPom ratings, etc.), our observations and a dose of old-fashioned sarcasm (when needed) — all in the name of providing fans with the state-of-play in one of the nation’s toughest conferences.
(Results listed for games in the past week.)
The website BracketMatrix.com aggregates the NCAA Tournament projections from 59 sources across the college basketball world.
As of Monday, only one forecast included Brigham Young in its 68-team forecast.
One of 59.
Granted, the outlier, T-Rank, is operated by the respected analytics practitioner Bart Torvik. But algorithms aside, the Cougars (11-5) have a steep climb into March Madness in their first year under coach Kevin Young.
Part of the challenge is of their own making: BYU’s non-conference schedule is one of the worst in captivity — seriously, you would be hard-pressed to find any Power Four program with a weaker lineup of opponents (except, perhaps, for the team up the road from Provo).
Combine that soft non-conference schedule with the Cougars’ repeated whiffs against the toughest teams they have faced (inside the Big 12 or otherwise), and you might not expect to see them anywhere near the NCAA Tournament bubble.
But they have a shot, folks. Just as their resume lacks quality wins so, too, does it lack bad losses.
All five defeats to this point count as Quadrant I or II results in the NET ranking system that aids the tournament selection process.
Which means two things for the Cougars as they plow forward with precious little margin for error.
— They must avoid a resume-killing loss.
Over the coming weeks, there are two giant potholes looming on BYU’s schedule: Home dates against Kansas State and Utah.
Lose either, and it’s trouble. Big trouble.
— Somewhere, anywhere, they must secure a few quality wins.
Those opportunities are prevalent in a conference as stout as the Big 12, and BYU hosts Baylor, Arizona, Kansas and West Virginia in the stretch run.
Win two of the four, and the road to March Madness opens.
Or combine one big home victory with a breakthrough on the road.
Despite the heavy skepticism across the prognostication world, the Cougars are not quite toast.
But the window is closing, the heat is on and the edges are starting to brown.
To the power rankings …
1. Iowa State (14-1/4-0)
Results: won at Texas Tech 85-84 (OT)Best win: Texas TechWorst loss: AuburnNET ranking: 5Comment: The Cyclones had to dig deep to survive in Lubbock. If they can just repeat that performance another six or eight times, they’ll have an undefeated Big 12 road record (eye roll emoji).
2. Houston (12-3/4-0)
Results: won at Kansas State 87-57Best win: TCUWorst loss: San Diego StateNET ranking: 3Comment: More impressive than an eight-game winning streak: when all eight wins are by double digits and six are by 20 points.
3. Kansas (12-3/3-1)
Results: beat Arizona State 74-55, won at Cincinnati 54-40Best win: DukeWorst loss: CreightonNET ranking: 6Comment: The only teams in Division I with more efficient defenses than KU are Houston, Tennessee and Duke, according to the KenPom.com adjusted efficiency metrics.
4. Arizona (11-5/5-0)
Results: beat UCF 88-80 and Baylor 81-70Best win: BaylorWorst loss: OklahomaNET ranking: 13Comment: The injury to Mo Krivas, enhanced role for Henri Veesaar and subsequent transformation of what was a mediocre season reminds us of the time Arizona replaced Jayden de Laura with Noah Fifita way back in the fall of 2023.
5. Baylor (11-5/3-2)
Results: won at Arizona State 72-66 (OT), lost at Arizona 81-70Best win: St. John’sWorst loss: UConnNET ranking: 22Comment: Their desert split secured, the Bears should roll right through the next four games, then use all that momentum to welcome Kansas to town on Feb. 1.
6. West Virginia (12-3/3-1)
Results: won at Colorado 78-70Best win: GonzagaWorst loss: LouisvilleNET ranking: 30Comment: If there’s a tougher back-to-back in the Big 12 than facing Houston on the road and Iowa State at home, the exact double whammy facing West Virginia this week, we haven’t seen it.
7. Texas Tech (12-4/3-2)
Results: lost to Iowa State 85-84 (OT), won at Kansas State 61-57Best win: Brigham YoungWorst loss: St. Joseph’sNET ranking: 21Comment: When does a one-point home loss in conference play count as your best result of the season? When your non-conference schedule is ranked 331st by one of the most respected analytics websites (KenPom) in the business.
8. TCU (9-6/2-2)
Results: beat Brigham Young 71-67Best win: Brigham YoungWorst loss: Colorado StateNET ranking: 74Comment: The defense has performed well, but TCU’s offense is the least efficient in the Big 12 with the exception of Oklahoma State. Maybe try the Air Raid?
9. Brigham Young (11-5/2-3)
Results: lost at TCU 71-67, beat Oklahoma State 85-69Best win: NC StateWorst loss: ProvidenceNET ranking: 47Comment: There’s a showdown Saturday in Salt Lake City as the bitter rivals race for the bottom of the Big 12. (Just kidding, mostly. The Cougars won’t finish last.)
10. UCF (12-4/3-2)
Results: beat Colorado 75-74, lost at Arizona 88-80, won at ASU 95-89Best win: Texas A&MWorst loss: LSUNET ranking: 70Comment: The word that comes to mind when we see the Knights just two games out of first but far from the spotlight? Lurking. In the Big 12 race, they are lurking.
11. Arizona State (10-6/1-4)
Results: lost at Kansas 74-55 and to Baylor 72-66 (OT) and UCF 95-89Best win: Saint Mary’sWorst loss: UCFNET ranking: 61Comment: Welp, it was fun while it lasted.
12. Cincinnati (10-5/0-4)
Results: lost to Kansas 54-40Best win: XavierWorst loss: Kansas StateNET ranking: 41Comment: The bottom of the Big 12 is as bad as the top of the Big 12 is good: Discuss amongst yourselves.
13. Colorado (9-6/0-4)
Results: lost at UCF 75-74 and to West Virginia 78-70Best win: UConnWorst loss: Arizona StateNET ranking: 86Comment: Our view of the situation as it unfolds: Deion and Jerry would work well together.
14. Kansas State (7-9/1-4)
Results: lost to Houston 87-57 and Texas Tech 71-57Best win: CincinnatiWorst loss: Oklahoma StateNET ranking: 127Comment: We aren’t convinced the Wildcats will lose all 15 of their remaining conference games, but we aren’t convinced they won’t.
15. Utah (9-6/1-3)
Results: beat Oklahoma State 83-62Best win: Oklahoma StateWorst loss: Texas TechNET ranking: 78Comment: The losses aren’t the problem; the Utes don’t have a bad one. The problem is the wins: They don’t have a good one.
16. Oklahoma State (9-7/1-4)
Results: lost at Utah 83-62 and BYU 85-69Best win: Kansas StateWorst loss: FAUNET ranking: 120Comment: On the bright side, there are some winnable games left for the Cowboys, starting Saturday against Colorado.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline