Welcome to a new weekly feature on the Hotline. We’ll break down Big 12 basketball using key metrics (NET rankings, KenPom ratings, etc.), our observations and a dose of old-fashioned sarcasm (when needed) — all in the name of providing fans with the state-of-play in one of the nation’s toughest conferences.
(Results listed for games in the past week.)
Houston took an unlikely path to victory in Allen Fieldhouse last weekend when the Cougars rallied from six points down in the final seconds of overtime, then beat Kansas in the second extra period.
But the outcome itself was not unusual. Road teams are thriving in the Big 12 compared to prior years.
With the midpoint of the round-robin schedule arriving this weekend, road teams are 29-40 in conference play (42 percent).
That winning percentage is on pace to become the second-best in Big 12 history, according to data provided to the Hotline from the conference office.
The only instance of road teams winning more than 42 percent of their conference games came in the 2020-21 season, when COVID limited attendance and effectively turned every matchup into a neutral-court affair.
Remove global pandemics from the equation, and 2024-25 is tracking to become the most successful season for road teams since the Big 12 came into existence in 1996.
If the trend continues, this season would join 2020-21 as the only occasions (out of 29) in which road teams managed to win 40 percent of the games.
Half the time, their win rate is below 35 percent.
We’re hesitant to attribute a single explanation to the visitors’ success. Two years of realignment might have a role — Houston is 4-0 on the road; Arizona is 3-1 — and the transfer portal and NIL have created greater parity across college sports.
Also, six weeks remain. As fatigue mounts through February, the results could turn against road teams just enough to drive their winning percentage below 40.
But it’s a development worth monitoring.
To the power rankings …
1. Houston (16-3/8-0)
Results: beat Utah 70-36, won at Kansas 92-86 (2OT)Best win: at KansasWorst loss: vs. San Diego StateNET ranking: 2Comment: The victory at KU was the Big 12’s most unlikely win since 2017 using the win expectancy metrics on KenPom.com. They had a 0.4% chance of winning before scoring six points in the final eight seconds of the first overtime.
2. Iowa State (17-3/7-2)
Results: won at Arizona State 76-61, lost at Arizona 86-75 (OT)Best win: vs. KansasWorst loss: at West VirginiaNET ranking: 6Comment: Should the Cyclones have fouled Arizona’s Caleb Love before he launched the miracle shot? Of course not. If the foul is called while he’s shooting, there’s a better chance Love makes three free throws than drains a 55-footer. Should ISU’s Joshua Jefferson have purposefully missed his second free throw with a two-point lead and three seconds left? Also, no.
3. Kansas (15-5/6-3)
Results: won at TCU 74-61, lost to Houston 92-86 (2OT), beat UCF 91-87Best win: vs. DukeWorst loss: vs. HoustonNET ranking: 8Comment: The collapse against Houston certainly wasn’t the worst loss the Jayhawks have suffered from a metrics standpoint, but it was brutal psychologically. They caught a break with the schedule, which provided a home game just three days later against an opponent (UCF) they could beat despite the Houston hangover.
4. Arizona (14-6/8-1)
Results: beat Colorado 78-63, beat Iowa State 86-75 (OT)Best win: vs. Iowa StateWorst loss: vs. OklahomaNET ranking: 13Comment: It’s time to start considering the Wildcats, who had more losses (five) than wins (four) in the middle of December, for a top-four seed in the NCAAs. They would need to avoid any Quadrant III or IV losses down the stretch, and they might need to reach the Big 12 championship game. But that outcome now seems more realistic than, say, making a 55-footer.
5. Texas Tech (15-4/6-2)
Results: beat Oklahoma State 64-54Best win: vs. ArizonaWorst loss: vs. St. Joseph’sNET ranking: 14Comment: The Red Raiders are quietly churning along, surrounded by mayhem, beating the teams they’re supposed to beat and driving for a top-four seed in the Big 12 tournament (and the accompanying bye into the quarterfinals).
6. Brigham Young (14-6/5-4)
Results: beat Cincinnati 80-52 and Baylor 93-89 (OT)Best win: vs. BaylorWorst loss: at ProvidenceNET ranking: 36Comment: Mission accomplished for the Cougars: They went 4-1 during a soft stretch in their schedule and have substantial momentum entering a brutal few weeks in which they play five of eight on the road and have two daunting home games (Arizona and Kansas).
7. Baylor (13-7/5-4)
Results: beat Kansas State 70-62, won at Utah 76-61, lost at BYU 93-89 (OT)Best win: vs. St. John’sWorst loss: vs. TCUNET ranking: 29Comment: The late-November victory over St. John’s in the Bahamas, on Jeremy Roach’s buzzer-beater, is looking better by the week. The Fightin’ Pitinos are 18-3 overall, tied for first place in the Big East and ranked 23rd in the NET.
8. Arizona State (12-8/3-6)
Results: lost to Iowa State 76-61, won at Colorado 70-68Best win: vs. Saint Mary’sWorst loss: vs. UCFNET ranking: 58Comment: The Sun Devils’ records, both overall and in conference play, are deceiving: They are 10-1 in Quadrant II, III and IV games. (Hence their position here relative to teams with better marks in Big 12 play.)
9. West Virginia (13-6/4-4)
Results: lost at Kansas State 73-60Best win: at KansasWorst loss: vs. Arizona StateNET ranking: 41Comment: You would be hard-pressed to find a Division I team with a better set of three wins away from home than the Mountaineers, who beat Gonzaga and Arizona on neutral courts and won at Kansas. That trifecta is propping up their NET ranking as the conference losses mount.
10. UCF (13-7/4-5)
Results: beat TCU 85-58, lost at Kansas 91-87Best win: at Texas TechWorst loss: vs. LSUNET ranking: 62Comment: Don’t dismiss the Knights as an NCAA Tournament team. Their victory over Texas A&M in the season opener will carry substantial weight five months later when the selection committee gathers in Indianapolis.
11. TCU (10-9/3-5)
Results: lost to Kansas 74-61 and at UCF 85-58Best win: at BaylorWorst loss: vs. UtahNET ranking: 81Comment: Collectively, the Big 12 has no Quadrant IV losses and only three Quadrant III defeats. The Horned Frogs own one of them (at home against Utah), while Baylor and Oklahoma State have the others.
12. Utah (12-8/4-5)
Results: lost at Houston 70-36, lost to Baylor 76-61, beat Cincinnati 69-66Best win: at TCUWorst loss: vs. IowaNET ranking: 76Comment: A few weeks ago, we were convinced the Utes would make a coaching change this spring. Now, we’re convinced they won’t. Check back in a month, and we’ll have a final determination on Craig Smith’s future.
13. Cincinnati (12-8/2-7)
Results: lost at Brigham Young 80-52 and Utah 69-66Best win: vs. XavierWorst loss: at Kansas StateNET ranking: 51Comment: The resume is stronger than you might think given Cincinnati’s conference record, save for two matters: The Bearcats are winless in Quadrant I games; and their non-conference schedule ranks 325th in Division I (out of 364 teams). For those reasons, the at-large path to the NCAAs is currently blocked.
14. Kansas State (8-11/2-6)
Results: lost to Baylor 70-62, beat West Virginia 73-60Best win: vs. West VirginiaWorst loss: at Wichita StateNET ranking: 102Comment: There are plenty of winnable games left for the Wildcats and third-year coach Jerome Tang, whose seat is getting warmer by the week.
15. Oklahoma State (10-9/2-6)
Results: lost at Texas Tech 64-54Best win: vs. Kansas StateWorst loss: vs. FAUNET ranking: 109Comment: If the quality of a conference is based on the strength of its cellar, then the Big 12 is running third, far behind the SEC, narrowly trailing the Big Ten and light years ahead of the ACC.
16. Colorado (9-11/0-9)
Results: lost at Arizona 78-63 and to Arizona State 70-68Best win: vs. ConnecticutWorst loss: vs. Arizona StateNET ranking: 103Comment: The Buffaloes’ best opportunities for a Big 12 breakthrough come Feb. 15 and March 8, when they host UCF and TCU, respectively. Otherwise, they will have to conjure an upset to avoid 0-20.
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