The first weekend of October is typically a tad early for must-win games, but that’s precisely the situation for Arizona State after a surprisingly positive start under second-year coach Kenny Dillingham.
It has been a few years since the Sun Devils played a game that mattered in the season’s second month.
At this point in 2022, they had just fired coach Herm Edwards, owned a 1-3 record and were barreling toward a three-win season.
Last year at this time, they were 1-3 under Dillingham and headed nowhere, courtesy of the self-imposed bowl ban.
The postseason is not only available to ASU this fall but clearly visible on the horizon. At 3-1, the Sun Devils need three victories in their final eight games to qualify.
Everything hinges on this week — on beating Kansas, which is among the most disappointing teams in the Big 12.
Projected to finish fourth in the preseason media poll, the Jayhawks have a single victory, over Lindenwood, an FCS team from the Ohio Valley Conference.
Quarterback Jalon Daniels is struggling with accuracy and consistency (five touchdowns, eight interceptions), the defense is breaking as often as it bends and well-regarded coach Chris Klieman is searching for answers before it gets too late for a course correction.
Had a point spread for the Saturday evening duel been set prior to the season, the Jayhawks would have been a solid favorite. But the current line points to ASU by a field goal.
Given the schedule ahead, the Devils cannot miss the opportunity.
Next up is Utah, which has two weeks to prepare for ASU and could have quarterback Cam Rising healthy following a hand injury.
Then ASU visits Cincinnati and Oklahoma State before a stretch run that features a quartet of teams (UCF, Kansas State, Brigham Young and Arizona) with a combined record of 15-3.
Put another way: The Devils would be wise to secure five wins before their bruising final stretch.
Which means they need two victories across the middle third of the season — the third of the season that begins this week against the Jayhawks.
Handle KU, find another win against Utah, Cincinnati or Oklahoma State, then see what the stretch run brings.
It’s not the only equation that will produce a postseason berth, but it’s the easiest one to solve.
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