When the Bears have the ball
The Bears will try to pick up where they left off before the bye — with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams taking a little more control of the offense each week. Williams has had a 100-plus passer rating in the last three games (all victories) and will be trying to become the first Bears quarterback since the 1970 merger with four consecutive games with a 100-plus rating.
The Commanders are 12th in passing yards allowed but 23rd in yards allowed per attempt — a disparity that indicates vulnerability. They are 30th in the NFL in passer rating allowed — 107.4 (12 touchdowns, three interceptions).
A focus during the bye week self-scouting was getting off to a faster start, with an emphasis on third-down conversions. The Bears are 30th in the NFL in yards (17.9 average) and points (10) in their opening two drives. They have converted three of 14 third-down situations, with three sacks. The Bears have been effective at attacking weaknesses so far under first-year coordinator Shane Waldron.
The key matchup is the Bears’ offensive line against a Commanders pass rush that is tied for eighth in the NFL in sacks (19) and sixth in sacks per pass play. The Bears’ line has improved throughout the three-game winning streak but has faced three bottom-10 pass-rush teams. The Commanders will be the best pass-rushing team the Bears have faced since Week 2 against the Texans, who sacked Williams seven times.
When the Commanders have the ball
A Bears defense that ranks fourth in points allowed and has not allowed more than 21 points in any game this season could be in for a stern test against a Commanders offense that leads the NFL in scoring (31.1 points per game) and has scored 34 or more points in four of its last five games.
That threat would seem to diminish if backup Marcus Mariota plays for injured rookie star Jayden Daniels (bruised ribs). But the Bears know better. Mariota is one of the most capable veteran backups in the NFL. He had a 121.2 passer rating in place of Daniels against the Panthers last week, when he came off the bench cold and completed 18 of 23 passes for 205 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions.
But that was against the Panthers’ defense, which ranks 32nd and last in the NFL in scoring and 30th in yards. The Bears’ defense ranks in the top 10 in several key categories, including total yards (fifth), sacks per pass play (seventh) and third-down conversion percentage (seventh).
A key matchup is Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin against Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson. McLaurin has 35 receptions (24 for first downs) for 454 yards and four touchdowns. But he was held to four receptions for 49 yards in the Bears’ 40-20 victory at FedEx Field last year (when Terell Smith played for the injured Johnson) and three receptions for 41 yards in a 12-7 victory at Soldier Field in 2022.