The Bears have a lot to fix, and the most important issue they must address is the development of rookie quarterback Caleb Williams.
That’s crucial this season and in the long run. At 4-4, in last place in the NFC North and with the hardest remaining schedule in the NFL, the only thing that will save them this season is Williams growing astronomically and quickly. It’s also vital to the franchise in the big picture because everything hinges on Williams becoming a championship-level quarterback.
Halfway through his first season, he’s far from that.
Williams has had great games against bad defenses, but been inconsistent overall and sits with an 83.0 passer rating, which ranks 26th among the 36 quarterbacks who have thrown at least 125 passes. He is behind fellow rookies Jayden Daniels (106.7) and Drake Maye (85.1). He faces Maye and the Patriots on Sunday at Soldier Field.
Neither Williams nor the Bears anticipated it would take this long to click, and reasons for his slow start are interconnected. The coaching of Matt Eberflus and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron are part of it, and so is the unreliable offensive line that general manager Ryan Poles put in place. But Williams is not absolved, and his inaccuracy as a passer has been just as much a part of the problem.
“It’s frustrating because I’ve worked over the years with accuracy being the most important thing,” Williams said Wednesday before practice. “I still pride myself on that, so not being accurate, not being on time with things, is frustrating because it’s kind of been my thing.
“Right now, I’m not as solid as I’ve been, not as solid as I pride myself on, and definitely going to get there. We’re going to get there. I’m going to get there. But it starts with me.”
During the buildup to his Bears debut and throughout the season, Williams has never tried to temper expectations or asked for patience. He, like many observers, expected he’d become a star quickly. As he has fallen short of that, he consistently has taken responsibility.
Regardless of the Bears’ imperfections around Williams, the ball ultimately is in his hands. Turnovers, which he mostly has avoided, and bad throws are squarely on him. Pro Football Reference charted Williams’ throws as on-target 68.9% of the time, third-worst among qualifying quarterbacks.
He is 30th in the NFL with a 61.4 completion percentage, 23rd in yardage at 1,665, 21st in touchdown passes with nine and has the 18th-fewest interceptions at five. Among the four rookies who have played significantly — Williams, Daniels, Maye and the Broncos’ Bo Nix — Williams leads only in touchdown passes.
Eberflus mentioned early in the season he saw fundamental issues with some of Williams’ off-balanced throws, but hasn’t seen any problematic mechanics leading to inaccurate passes lately.
“Just the rhythm and the timing of it as he scans across… just being cleaner with that,” Eberflus said, “When he does that, it’s a good operation.”
That’s harder to do, of course, when other factors are hindering him, and that’s where coaches’ and teammates’ performances are tangled with Williams’.
Williams has been sacked 29 times, third-most in the NFL, and pressured 24.1% of the time, 11th-most. He played terribly in the last two games, but it’s worth noting that the Commanders got pressure on 63% of his drop backs and the Cardinals did so on 42%. That’s a huge flaw in the infrastructure for a rookie quarterback.
Then there’s Waldron, who has been a wreck so far. Eberflus and players interjected with concerns about the offense three games into the season, there have been perplexing play calls, the running game is ineffective and players are still talking about “execution” issues in November. No matter what they specifically mean by that, it points to a disconnect between them and Waldron.
Williams has repeatedly brought up “communication” as a vital part of getting the offense on track and mentioned Wednesday that he needs “to be able to talk over [things] a little bit more,” including getting on the same page with his receivers when it comes to route running and walking through the defensive coverages the Bears anticipate facing.
Facing the Patriots on Sunday should help, though that team has a long history of not being a pushover defensively. They’re 2-7 and have allowed 24.1 points per game and a 97.5 passer rating.
Lighting them up won’t signal a turning point. Williams already has shown he can play well against weak defenses, and that didn’t last once the competition got tougher. He needs to make the type of meaningful progress that will translate against the Packers, Vikings, Lions and others awaiting him. And the part of that he has the most control over is his throwing accuracy.