MOBILE, Ala. — Bears general manager Ryan Poles moved cautiously through his first three offseasons, wary of spending the team right back into the salary-cap mess he was hired to clean up. He talked frequently about wanting his rebuild to be “sustainable,” and while he did add talent through free agency, it was always with an eye on the books.
He signed linebacker Tremaine Edmunds in 2023 for $72 million over four years, for example, but that was instead of the five-year, $100 million deal Roquan Smith wanted. When he picked up wide receiver Keenan Allen in a trade with the Chargers last year, all it cost him was a fourth-round pick, and the Bears were so far under the cap that the one year left on his contract at $23.1 million was harmless.
It’s time to pick up the pace, however, after the slow and steady way produced a 5-12 record this season and the plan backfired so badly that president Kevin Warren felt it necessary to speak up about Poles’ job security.
Poles can’t be reckless, but he does need to be more aggressive. The Bears are entering the second season of Caleb Williams’ rookie contract, a precious window to stockpile talent elsewhere while paying very little for the quarterback, and new coach Ben Johnson said there’s “no question” the team should be targeting a playoff run next season.
The long list of needs to address is concerning, but the Bears have resources to throw at it. Over The Cap projects them to have $63.1 million in cap space, fifth-most in the NFL, and they have the No. 10 overall pick in the draft, plus two second-rounders at Nos. 39 and 41 overall and a third-rounder slotted at No. 72.
In a perfect world, they’d find four new starting offensive linemen, another pass rusher, a defensive tackle and another pass-catching threat at either wide receiver or tight end. That’s probably more than they can get in this offseason.
While the Bears are deep into scouting for the draft and had a large delegation of scouts at the Senior Bowl practices, free agency comes first. Teams can officially begin contract negotiations March 10, though informal backchanneling surely is underway already.
The most obvious free agent for the Bears to pursue is Chiefs guard Trey Smith, who made the Pro Bowl this season, and would help tremendously. Smith is still just 25, and Poles was part of the front office that drafted him in 2021.
As one of the top players available regardless of position, Spotrac projected Smith’s market value to be a four-year, $78.8 million deal. Considering that Williams took a league-high 68 sacks this season and the Bears struggled to get much going in their ground game, Smith would be worth it.
Even with ample cap space, the Bears likely could only take on one more top-tier free agent or trade acquisition because they’ll need the rest to take care of more modest additions, a contract extension for nickel cornerback Kyler Gordon and their incoming rookie class.
Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins (four years, $101.8 million market value, per Spotrac), Rams left tackle Alaric Jackson (three years, $47.9 million) and Steelers left tackle Dan Moore (three years, $37.7 million) are worth a look. Depending who the Bears sign or draft at tackle, they could move right tackle Darnell Wright to the left side.
One of the most interesting names about to hit free agency is Khalil Mack. Remember him?
Mack was the most stunning pickup by the Bears in the last 15 years and was one of the first players Poles offloaded when the Bears hired him in 2022. At the time, Mack was coming off significant foot surgery and Poles was in the burndown phase of his rebuild.
While he turns 34 soon, pass rushers tend to have longevity and Mack is still a force. That’s why his projected market value is $70.9 million over three years. In the three seasons since Poles traded him to the Chargers, Mack had 31 sacks, played 50 of 51 games and made the Pro Bowl three times.
There are always opportunities to trade for star players who are either disgruntled or no longer affordable for their current team, and the top candidates via that avenue are wide receivers Tyreek Hill of the Dolphins, Deebo Samuel of the 49ers and D.K. Metcalf of the Seahawks.
Those are some flashy names, but the Bears need to prioritize the lines of scrimmage. If they can get Smith and one other piece on the offensive line, they can weigh left tackle, defensive end or an elite defensive tackle in the first round. The two second-round picks are in an ideal zone to add an interior offensive lineman and perhaps another skill player, and the third round is where it starts getting difficult to assume any draft picks can be immediate starters.
Poles would’ve preferred to have a much shorter shopping list by this point in his tenure, but reality is harsh. When a team goes 5-12 and falls far short of expectations, almost everything should be on the table.