Amid the Bears’ arduous rebuild under general manager Ryan Poles, which is now in Year 4, they’ve caught some breaks. The biggest by far was the sequence of unexpected events that led to them landing the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 draft.
It’ll probably take three seasons to evaluate whether they got it right by taking Caleb Williams, and the Bears are hoping an upgraded offensive line and new coach Ben Johnson will propel him to reach his potential, but it was a good year to have first choice in a quarterback-rich draft.
Had the Bears stuck with Justin Fields for one more season, they would’ve joined the quarterback-needy teams that are trying to get a clear read on those available this season. University of Miami’s Cam Ward and University of Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders lead the class, but they’re the only certain first-rounders, and there’s a lot of discrepancy on how high they’ll go.
It’s a much different scenario than a year ago, when the last two Heisman Trophy winners were the obvious frontrunners in Williams and LSU’s Jayden Daniels. North Carolina’s Drake Maye had all the right characteristics, and those three along with Washington’s Michael Penix, Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy and Oregon’s Bo Nix all went in the top 12 picks.
It was an incredibly fortunate time to be looking for a quarterback. All of them but McCarthy, who missed his rookie season with the Vikings because of a knee injury, showed significant promise last season.
The most recent mock drafts from NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah and ESPN’s Mel Kiper both had Ward going first overall to the Titans and Sanders going two picks later to the Giants, but that appears to be predicated on those teams’ desperation. ESPN’s Scouts Inc. grading gave Ward 92 points out of 100 and Sanders 90, ranking them seventh and 14th, respectively, among all prospects.
Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart has gained momentum lately and could sneak into the first round. Scouts Inc. gave him an 88 grade and ranked him 28th among all prospects.
This quarterback class is at best murky and at worst a trap for a team that convinces itself that it knows something everyone else doesn’t.
Conversely, Williams, Daniels and Maye each scored 93 or higher in the pre-draft evaluation, with Williams leading all players at a near-perfect 97.
The No. 1 pick that secured Williams for the Bears had its roots in the 2023 No. 1 pick. They landed that only when the Texans upset the Colts in the final minute of the final game of the season, then Poles flipped it to the Panthers for wide receiver DJ Moore and haul of draft picks as he committed to Fields for one more season.
The 2023 class had a lot of uncertainty, too. While it was clear for most of the runup to the draft that Alabama’s Bryce Young would go first to the Panthers and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud would go second to the Texans, the evaluations on them were littered with question marks. Anthony Richardson went fourth to the Colts, and that was it.
Young and Richardson failed to prove in their first two seasons they were viable NFL starters. Stroud was electric as a rookie and won a playoff game in each of his first two seasons, but plunged from sixth in passer rating in 2023 to 25th last season — one spot behind Williams in addition to trailing rookies Nix, Maye and Daniels.
Had they stuck with Fields, by the way, they would’ve had no choice but to overpay. Despite lasting just six starts with the Steelers last season before getting benched in favor of Russell Wilson, he’s the Jets’ starter on a two-year, $40 million contract.
There’s little doubt then that 2024 was the best possible time in the last few years to be looking for a quarterback. It might prove to have been the best time in the last two decades.
The first leg of their race has Daniels as the clear leader after winning Offensive Rookie of the Year and finishing seventh in the MVP vote, then taking the Commanders to the NFC championship game. But there might be more than one winner, and a lot can change in Year 2.
The Patriots spent a lot in free agency putting upgrades in place for Maye, including the addition of four-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Stefon Diggs. The Bears rebuilt most of their offensive line and coaching staff for Williams and still have three draft picks in the first two rounds at the end of the month. Not to be left out, the Commanders swung a trade for multi-talented offensive star Deebo Samuel.
There could be multiple “right guys” in that draft class, and it’ll come down to which teams can make the most of landing one of them. The Commanders already have. The Bears must take their good fortune and capitalize on it by facilitating Williams’ growth and building the necessary infrastructure around him. It should be apparent this season whether they’re capable of doing that.
