Whether Bears general manager Ryan Poles is ready for it or not, the upcoming draft is the end of his rebuild.
Really, it should have been over last offseason, and the Bears certainly thought it was. It’s rare for a general manager to get a fourth year and second head coach as part of a rebuild, but the team extended him some leniency.
The roster remained far away from competing last season, leaving much to do in the final phase of Poles’ rebuild. The team was loaded with skill talent, had top draft pick Caleb Williams at quarterback and a defense that believed it was about to be top-five in the NFL, but went 5-12 and required a near-total makeover of the offensive and defensive lines in addition to clearing out the coaching staff.
As the urgency increases, and with it surely the pressure from president Kevin Warren, there’s more on the line for Poles in this draft than any of his previous three. At a time when the Bears need immediate help to bolster a push for the playoffs this season, they also need long-term, financially-conscious installations as Poles holds three picks in the first two rounds at Nos. 10, 39 and 41.
Poles is looking to maximize Williams’ rookie-contract window, a rare and precious four-year opportunity for any team, but also look beyond it. His three high draft picks must target expensive needs, and there is no margin for whiffing on any of them.
Using his first-rounder on a left tackle and targeting a defensive tackle and a wide receiver early in the second round is the best way to accomplish both tasks.
The need at left tackle is obvious. Not only did three-year starter Braxton Jones struggle last season, but he’s also going into the final season of his rookie contract.
If the Bears are committed to Jones for the long run, they need to feel confident paying him starting left tackle money. The top 16 left tackles in the NFL are earning an average between $13.5 million and $28.1 million per season on their current deals.
By drafting a left tackle like LSU’s Will Campbell, Missouri’s Armand Membou, Texas’ Kelvin Banks or Ohio State’s Josh Simmons, it’s likely the Bears will get an upgrade now and save money the next few years. Whoever they pick at No. 10 will get a predetermined contract paying about $6 million per year through 2028 with a team option for ’29.
There’s a lot of debate about the offensive tackles in this draft, but the Bears likely will have second choice of the group. If Poles and coach Ben Johnson believe in Banks or Simmons, both of whom have slipped toward the middle or end of Round 1, they have the luxury of trading back and stockpiling more assets while still getting the player they need. The same long-term financial argument could be made to take a pass rusher at No. 10, but the Bears just signed Dayo Odeyingbo to a three-year, $48 million deal and he’s only 25.
In the second round, defensive tackle looks like the best value since it’s widely thought to be the deepest position in this draft. The average annual pay for the top 16 at that position ranges from $17 million to $31.8 million.
The Bears just shelled out $42.8 million over three years for defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, who seemed last season to still be working back from his torn ACL in 2023 and turns 32 next month.
Meanwhile, at No. 39 overall, they could be in range of highly rated prospects like Michigan’s Kenneth Grant or Ole Miss’ Walter Nolen. That player would get a chance to compete for playing time immediately, challenging Jarrett and Gervon Dexter, and would cost the Bears about $9.8 million total over the next four seasons.
Wide receiver isn’t a glaring need by any means considering the Bears just gave DJ Moore a nine-figure extension and drafted Rome Odunze ninth overall a year ago, but the rapidly rising contracts at that position force the Bears to plan ahead. Twenty receivers are playing on contracts that average more than $20 million per season, and the Bengals just signed their No. 1 Ja’Marr Chase for $40.3 million per year and their No. 2 Tee Higgins for $28.8 million per year.
Many around the league doubted the Bengals could afford that, and while they found a way, it’s likely they’ll have to trade four-time Pro Bowl defensive end Trey Hendrickson because of it.
The last several drafts have produced good wide receivers in the second round, and there could be a good collection of them this year. Ohio State’s Emeka Egbuka, Ole Miss’ Tre Harris and Missouri’s Luther Burden could reasonably be available early in the second round.
The draft gets increasingly unpredictable beyond the second round, but ideally Poles would find one more starter-level player among his remaining selections in the third round (No. 72 overall), fifth (No. 148) and seventh (Nos. 233 and 240).
Pulling off a near-perfect draft is a lot to ask, but that’s the position Poles is in at this stage of the rebuild and with a 15-36 record during his tenure. He can’t afford any busts and he needs to produce a roster ready to make a significant jump this season and change its trajectory.