The Colorado Avalanche traded Mikko Rantanen on a Friday. The market for Rantanen’s future services changed the following Friday.
A large spike in future salary cap ceilings had been speculated about for weeks. The NHL and NHLPA jointly announced this past Friday that the cap will be going up — way up — in the coming seasons. It will be $95.5 million next season.
Then it keeps rising, to $104 million in 2026-27 and $113.5 million in 2027-28. Those numbers aren’t locked in, but this is the most economic certainly that NHL teams and agents have had in the salary cap era.
There are two immediate thoughts:
1) The Avalanche, at the prices that have been reported, could have certainly afforded to keep Mikko Rantanen, right?
2) The price for Rantanen is likely different now then it was two Fridays ago, or it could be if he and his agent wants it to be.
Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet said he believes the Avs were offering Rantanen a contract at $11.75 million per season. That would make him the highest-paid wing in the league, at least until fellow pending free agent Mitch Marner signs.
There’s been plenty of speculation that Rantanen’s camp was looking for something at or closer to the $14 million per season that Leon Draisaitl signed for in September. Draisaitl, like Rantanen, is an Octagon Sports client.
Rantanen said he was ready to take a “significant discount” from his market value. No one on either side has been willing to confirm any of the numbers involved. It’s all a little vague, and everything since the trade comes with the security of hypothetical hindsight.
But the calculus of all this has changed.
Draisaitl, at $14 million per season, is currently the highest-paid player in the league. When the cap is $95.5 million, that’s a solid deal for both sides — he might be the reigning MVP when that contract kicks in next year.
When the cap is at $113.5 million two years after? Draisaitl is already a bargain.
The cap ceiling is going to be 22.5 percent higher in 2027-28 than it is right now. Every team is going to have way more flexibility to spend more, and the best players in the world should benefit from that the most.
Just for context: If Rantanen (or Marner) signs for $15.4 million per season, he’ll account for the same percentage of the cap in 2027-28 as Nathan MacKinnon’s $12.6 million does right now. Rantanen and Marner are going to reset the market for wings between now and early July.
Had either of them taken a deal in the $11.75-$12.5 million per year range before the announcement this past Friday, it would already look like a steal for the Avalanche or Maple Leafs.
There is not only going to be more money available for next season, but now teams can plan with more certainty for two and three years from now. The Hurricanes, which just traded for Rantanen, have about $35 million cap space for next season. The Blackhawks, who were a minor part of the trade but could be a player for Rantanen if he makes it to the market in July, have about $45 million in space.
Both sides — the Avalanche and Rantanen’s agent — knew that a big spike in future cap ceilings was a near certainty. It’s entirely possible that if Rantanen gets to July 1 without a new contract, that a team or three will be willing to offer him more than $14 million per season. Marner could see the same types of offers.
While Rantanen and Marner can be UFAs on July 1, Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov is eligible for an extension that kicks in at the start of the 2026-27 season the same day. It’s possible that Rantanen and Marner will reset the market for wings, then Kaprizov will establish a new benchmark shortly after.
Oh, and Connor McDavid is also eligible for a new deal the same day.
Another player who should be happy with this new economic reality? Martin Necas, who has one more year on his contract and can be a UFA on July 1, 2026 (or sign a new deal with Avs as early as this July 1).
Everyone at the top of the NHL should make more money moving forward. The next few years of MacKinnon’s deal will look like a huge bargain for the Avs in short order. And he might have been right, after all — maybe Cale Makar could get $20 million a year in his next contract (which would start with the 2027-28 season).
We still don’t know what Rantanen is going to ultimately sign for, or how the Avs are going to allocate the money they might have spent on him elsewhere. This announcement does add new context. Whether the Avs will be proven “right” or “wrong” remains to be seen.
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