The Avalanche is dealing with an extraordinary availability crisis to start the 2024-25 season, but one of the most important developments so far might involve the world-class healthy players.
Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar and Mikko Rantanen have been great to start the year, carrying an offense that has finished every game with between four and six of the top-10 forwards on the roster not available. But how much the Big Three are playing — or maybe more importantly not playing — is an intriguing storyline in the first month.
Despite missing all of those key forwards (and defenseman Devon Toews for four games), MacKinnon, Makar and Rantanen were all averaging about the same ice time per contest through the Wednesday night loss to Tampa Bay that they did during the 2023-24 campaign.
MacKinnon is averaging three seconds more (22:52 per game), while Makar (24:32) and Rantanen (22:35) are playing slightly less.
“We do watch their minutes. We don’t want to overload them,” Avs coach Jared Bednar said. “We lean on them when we need to, and we lean on other guys in different situations.”
All three have been productive. Makar was tied for the NHL lead with 19 points after the game Wednesday. MacKinnon was tied for third with 18 points. Rantanen was tied for ninth with 15.
MacKinnon and Rantanen have annually been at or near the top of the NHL leaderboard in minutes played per game. That hasn’t changed this year. MacKinnon was first and Rantanen was third among forwards after the games Wednesday night, with Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov between them.
Edmonton’s Connor McDavid was averaging more, but leaving a game early with an injury dropped him down the list. Over the past three seasons, MacKinnon and Rantanen are first and second, with McDavid, Kaprizov, Mitch Marner (Toronto) and Leon Draisaitl (Edmonton) not far behind.
Makar is third in average ice time per game for defensemen over the past three seasons, behind only Los Angeles’ Drew Doughty and Buffalo’s Rasmus Dahlin. This season, he’s actually 11th among defensemen.
“It’s ideal for me and Nate and Cale and (Devon Toews),” Rantanen said. “As a forward, if you play 25 minutes, it’s a lot. It’s a long season. If we can stay a bit lower than that, it might help us in the spring and in the playoffs.
“I understand some games, when it gets tight or you lose a couple in a row you maybe play the top guys more. But as long as we play responsibly defensively, with all four lines, I think it is good. We don’t have to play that much and maybe we can save some energy and be more successful.”
The big guns do play more in those situations that Rantanen described. The two highest totals for MacKinnon and Rantanen were the losses to Chicago and Tampa Bay this past week — both games in which the Avs trailed and were chasing the game.
They both also played a lot against Anaheim — a game that went to overtime but also came after a four-game losing streak where the club was desperate to get in the win column.
One reason for the inflated numbers for MacKinnon, Makar and Rantanen is how much they play on the power play. Rantanen and MacKinnon were first and third last season in power-play time on ice per game and finished first and second in total ice time with the extra man.
Some teams play the first unit a lot more than the second, while other teams give PP2 more time. The Avs are definitely in the former category. Those minutes aren’t as taxing on the body as a long 5-on-5 shift might be.
Those guys are also in phenomenal shape, even by NHL standards, and have proven they can handle a bigger workload when needed.
“Overloading those guys with the minutes is not really sustainable,” Bednar said. “I know some people get up in arms when we play Nate 24 (minutes). He’s perfectly capable of playing 24 every night. He’s usually at 22 and change. Some people around the league think that’s crazy, but it’s not crazy. He’s been doing it for eight years since I’ve been here, and he’s been doing pretty good.
“We lean on them when we need to. It’s a gut feeling, ‘How is the game going?’”
The Avs are missing so many key forwards that Bednar could just hit the “easy button” and play his top guys even more than normal. Both Makar and Toews plus, MacKinnon and Rantanen, can play 28-30 minutes with ease when it is desperately needed.
Valeri Nichushkin played 29 minutes in a regulation game last season and 27-plus four times. When it’s the last resort, Bednar will do it.
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But even with six forwards missing, Game 10 or 11 in a long season hasn’t been deemed an emergency situation. Part of that is also because other players have stepped into bigger roles and played well.
Ross Colton is averaging 18:38 per game, and that includes leaving two games early with injuries. That’s way up from 13:48 last year because he went from third-line center to top-line wing and a spot on the first power play. But Colton will miss six-to-eight weeks with a broken foot, Bednar announced Wednesday. Casey Mittelstadt is averaging 4:05 more per game with the Avs than he did after arriving at the trade deadline, in part because he’s also moved onto PP1 and because he’s been one of the team’s best players.
Other guys like Logan O’Connor and Joel Kiviranta have gotten a bump. Rookies Ivan Ivan and Nikolai Kovalenko have been pleasant surprises as well.
“I think that says other guys in the lineup are playing well and we can rotate four lines through the game,” Rantanen said. “I think that helps when we have every line is trustworthy for the coaches to put out at any time of the game.”
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