This Colorado Avalanche campaign already feels like it’s had at least three acts, but the final one of the regular season begins Saturday in Nashville.
Colorado has 25 games in a little more than seven weeks — a compressed stretch run that comes with squeezing an international tournament into the middle of a season. The Avs entered Saturday in fourth place in the Central Division — two points behind the Minnesota Wild for third (with one less game to play) and four back of the Dallas Stars, who have two extra contests.
Here are 25 thoughts that touch on potential playoff matchups, needs ahead of the trade deadline, Nathan MacKinnon’s chances of repeating as league MVP, and a lot more:
1. The No. 1 objective for the Avs should be to get out of the first wild-card spot into the top three of the Central Division. Passing Dallas and securing home-ice advantage for a series with the Stars would be ideal, but leapfrogging Minnesota matters most.
2. Why would Dallas/Winnipeg be a better playoff path than potentially facing Edmonton and Vegas? Because the Oilers are the most dangerous team in the West. Yes, the Avs have won two amazing games in Edmonton over the past two seasons, but the Oilers are even better this year than last, and the Golden Knights could now add another impact player with Shea Theodore’s injury.
3. Another reason: We don’t know when Miro Heiskanen will play again. The Stars said he was “week-to-week” immediately after a knee injury in late January. Then he had surgery a week later and it became “month-to-month.”
4. Here’s how I’d rank the non-Avs teams in the West right now, with everyone available: Edmonton, Dallas, Vegas, Winnipeg. Here’s how I’d rank them if Heiskanen can’t play in the first round: Edmonton, Vegas, Winnipeg (gap), Dallas.
5. Winnipeg has had an amazing regular season. No one outside of Manitoba is going to pick the Jets to beat the Avs in a playoff series, assuming both sides are at full strength.
6. For the Avalanche, “full strength” at this point is everyone but Gabe Landeskog. It would be shocking if he plays in a regular-season game. The Avs won’t say it, but at some point, they will shift into the same mode as last season — if he can play at some point in the playoffs, that would be great.
7. There aren’t enough tangible reasons to believe the Jets are actually the team to beat in the West. Some of the key underlying numbers for the 2023-24 Jets and this year’s edition are the “Two Spider-Mans pointing at each other” meme.
8. What’s different with Winnipeg? Connor Hellebuyck is even better than he was last regular season. Eight key forwards are shooting a better percentage. The power play has improved by 15%. Those last two are connected, and neither feels like a great bet to continue for two months of playoff hockey.
9. All four of the best non-Avs teams in the West have enough cap flexibility to add more between now and March 7. A power ranking of those four (plus the Avs) is subject to change in the next two weeks.
10. Any of Minnesota, Los Angeles and Vancouver are good enough to win one round in the playoffs. None of them are winning more than that.
11. Nathan MacKinnon’s MVP performance at the 4 Nations Face-Off will help him when it’s time to vote for the Hart Trophy in April. It’s really, really hard to repeat as the league MVP. Some voters are now going to give MacKinnon the edge in a too-close-to-call voting situation. Book it.
12. I’ve thought all season that MacKinnon had a better chance of winning the Art Ross Trophy than repeating as the Hart winner, but his odds of claiming both are rising.
13. Even if MacKinnon wins the scoring title, there’s a good case for at least two other MVP candidates (Leon Draisaitl and Hellebuyck) and a sentimental/narrative-driven case for Zach Werenski. But now, MacKinnon could have two big narrative-building things on his side as well: He was MVP of the best-on-best tournament and he’s still awesome without Mikko Rantanen.
14. The No. 1 need for the Avs between now and March 7 is another defenseman, preferably one who can play on the second pairing if needed. Josh Manson’s year has been up and down, in part because of injuries. The addition doesn’t have to be the clear No. 4 on the depth chart, but a 4A/4B situation with Manson would be ideal.
15. Are the Avs ready to trust Sam Malinski as an every-game guy for a (potential) long playoff run? If not, don’t be surprised if Colorado chases two defensemen before the deadline.
16. The Avs have used a handful of guys in the final spot on defense. It’s hard to see Jared Bednar trusting any of them for more than emergency spot duty.
17. Reliability and Valeri Nichushkin … well, that’s been an issue. The Avs aren’t going anywhere in the postseason tournament without him. He’s got to be healthy and playing well by Game 1.
18. The most intriguing situation with the Avalanche between now and the deadline is Casey Mittelstadt. Can he get back to his peak after the 4 Nations break? If not, would the Avs make another seismic trade in their never-ending quest to find a No. 2 center?
19. Mittelstadt was really good for the Avs in the playoffs last year. That should matter. But … so was Alexandar Georgiev after Game 1 in Winnipeg.
20. It’s going to be tough for the Avs to win a bidding war. Remember, they wanted Chris Tanev last year, but he ended up in Dallas. Those two 2025 second-round picks are nice, but several contenders have better 2025/2026 draft capital.
21. One more trade deadline item: Could Colorado poke around for a bigger bottom-six center? Parker Kelly has been solid, and Jack Drury is a huge upgrade over the other options, but both are relatively small. Maybe Kelly could slide to the wing.
22. Trent Frederic is going to be a very popular guy if the Bruins decide to sell, but old friend Nico Sturm would be an obvious target if the answer above is yes.
23. Let’s say the Avs don’t add another forward, and everyone (but Landeskog) is healthy. They have 13 NHL forwards. Who sits for Game 1? It’s probably one of Juuso Parssinen, Miles Wood or Joel Kiviranta, but that’s a stretch-run competition worth watching.
24. Mackenzie Blackwood’s career high is 47 games. He’s at 41 and is going to set a new one. Would be ideal for him to not go way past his old personal best, though.
25. MacKinnon needs 34 points in the final 25 games to have the two highest single-season totals in club history since the franchise moved to Denver. Two seasons that would surpass the career bests for Joe Sakic and Peter Forsberg. That’s pretty wild.
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