Hockey is a constant pursuit of controlling a chaotic, unpredictable environment.
The Colorado Avalanche is fortunate to start this season with three of the best players in the world — a base of stability that is the envy of 31 other NHL clubs.
Nathan MacKinnon, the reigning most valuable player, is at the peak of his powers. Cale Makar, a perennial Norris Trophy contender, might still be getting better at age 25. And Mikko Rantanen, as steady as they come on the wing, is fresh off back-to-back 100-point seasons.
Yet even with those three in the prime of their careers, this is a season defined by uncertainty.
Three of the best forwards on the team are unavailable to start the season, and the Avs have no idea when they will get captain Gabe Landeskog (knee) or two-way force of nature Valeri Nichushkin (suspension) back — let alone what type of impact they will make when they return.
Colorado Avalanche left wing Gabriel Landeskog skates with the team during practice before game five of the First Round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the Winnipeg Jets at the Canada Life Centre in Winnipeg, Canada on Tuesday, April 30, 2024. (Photo by Andy Cross/The Denver Post)
MacKinnon himself boiled down the promise, and the plight, of this Avalanche team in two sentences.
“Without Val, (Artturi Lehkonen) and Gabe, we’re not the best team in the league,” he said. “And I think with those guys, we might be.”
“I can’t focus on everyone else”
MacKinnon was majestic last season. He found levels of consistency and productivity that broke franchise records.
Even as he approaches his 30th birthday, he has defied traditional aging curves in the NHL with his relentless work ethic and unquenchable thirst to tweak, implement and repeat his now legendary training and recovery regimen.
He’s improved his goals and points per game in each of the past three seasons. He played every game last season for the first time in five years.
Despite the individual brilliance, MacKinnon has steadfastly measured his success by one trophy, the Stanley Cup, and not the ones he finally got his hands on after last season. That is a staple of his consistency, an unwavering long-term view about getting ready for the games that truly matter.
This year, that could be tested, given the uncertainty surrounding Landeskog and Nichushkin. Landeskog is attempting to become the first NHL player to come back from knee cartilage replacement surgery, while Nichushkin will be returning from a suspension after entering the NHL-NHLPA Players Assistance Program for the third time in two years.
The Avs will also be without Lehkonen to start the season, but he should return sometime in November from offseason shoulder surgery. It’s Landeskog and Nichushkin who make Colorado the NHL’s ultimate wild card.
“I’m just focused on like, I need to be good,” MacKinnon said. “I can’t focus on everyone else, or they’re not going to be here. We’ve dealt with plenty of injuries, so it’s the same thing.”
Assuming good health, MacKinnon will undoubtedly be one of the best centers in the NHL.
Makar, fresh off setting a franchise record for points by a defenseman despite feeling like it didn’t “click” for him, will undoubtedly be one of the best at his position. Rantanen, in the final year of his contract, will undoubtedly be one of the best wings.
Devon Toews will be one of the best defensive defensemen. Jonathan Drouin and Casey Mittelstadt can both be even better than last season as they get more comfortable in Colorado.
But Landeskog and Nichushkin are significant, ceiling-altering doubts.
“They are in such an odd spot,” ESPN analyst Ray Ferraro said. “How would you possibly be able to predict? You just can’t.”
“They’re going to get dealt the hand they get”
Landeskog has not played for two seasons. He was desperately trying to get back and help the Avs during the playoffs in May, but ran out of time and reset to focus on this year. There’s still no timeline for when he might return. How productive he can be is even more of a question mark, given the unprecedented nature of his procedure.
“It’s unfathomable to me that anyone could expect Gabe to jump back in and be the Gabe Landeskog that he was,” Ferraro said. “Whatever his conditioning level or strength is, it’s going to be diminished from what he was. How much of that can he get back? Impossible to tell. Could you get 70%? 80%? Would that be a realistic target?
“The Avs are like a handful of teams. It doesn’t really matter what they do between October and April. If I’m the Avs and I’m Gabe, I’m looking at April or maybe March as when I need to be as close to full-go as I can. Everything else before that is preparatory.”
The ceiling for Nichushkin’s on-ice impact is higher, but the risks are extreme, as the Avs have learned each of the past two postseasons. Nichushkin left the team during a first-round series two years ago against Seattle. A year later, he was suspended the day of a critical Game 4 against the Dallas Stars last May.
That morning, the Avs welcomed back Drouin from injury and a march to the Stanley Cup seemed possible. That afternoon, when news of Nichushkin’s suspension for at least six months became public, was the beginning of an end that came four days later.
“Nichushkin has let them down fully and completely twice now in the playoffs. Fully and completely,” TSN analyst Craig Button said. “They don’t really have options there, so that’s a cross-your-fingers situation. You hope that Valeri is going to be reliable and dependable. We know what a force he can be.
Colorado Avalanche right wing Valeri Nichushkin (13) outside of the face-off circle in the first period against the Montreal Canadiens at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado on Tuesday, March 26, 2024. (Photo by Andy Cross/The Denver Post)
“Think about how many players are like that in the NHL. That would be none. You can replace the player and the position, but what Valeri brings is massively unique. I think everyone hopes he can find stability in his personal life so he can be a real key part of it.”
Nichushkin will be eligible to apply for reinstatement in mid-November. If he has done what is needed to earn reinstatement, the Avs have said they will welcome him back with open arms again. He’ll likely need some time to get closer to game-ready form, but Colorado should have him back in the lineup sometime in December.
If he violates his requirements for Stage 3 of the program, the next suspension will be for one year with no assurance of a return. He could be out of strikes, not just with the organization but with the league as well.
“In a way, it’s got nothing to do with the Avs,” Ferraro said. “Landeskog is unfortunately a total question mark with his health. With Nichushkin, it’s two years running and he’s obviously dealing with issues that he’s fighting.
“They’re going to get dealt the hand they get, and that’s it. Then they have to adjust and decide (what’s next).”
A “pretty great spine” but also a crossroads
How soon the Avs can form some relative levels of expectation for Landeskog and Nichushkin will directly impact how general manager Chris MacFarland can adjust.
If both are healthy and contributing, the Avs are a Cup contender and MacFarland could spend the lead-up to the trade deadline looking for minor tweaks. Maybe another bottom-six center or a defenseman with a little more size and the skill needed to play in the Avs’ system.
If one or both stars can’t be counted on, the calculus changes.
“If you’ve got one of the best centers, one of the best wingers and the best defenseman, that’s a pretty great spine to start with,” Ferraro said. “The next thing is what do you think about your goaltending and what can you do there? You can make up for a lot of imperfections with being great at those four spots.”
The contract situations for Landeskog and especially Nichushkin could further muddy the long-term outlook as well. There are a number of potential paths forward and potential alternate universes, some with far more certainty than others. Rantanen still needs a new contract, or the picture gets even fuzzier.
Focusing just on this season, the Avs will need to rely on the greatness of MacKinnon and his world-class friends to carve out as much stability in an uncharacteristically uncertain situation until the cavalry returns and the organization can reassess.
It’s a team that still carries the highest of expectations, but it’s also at a crossroads.
“I’d like their chances,” Button said. “They have an outstanding coaching staff. Chris MacFarland has shown a real ability, along with Joe (Sakic), to know what their team needs at any particular moment in time. My confidence would still be really high. When players have the chance to join an organization like the Colorado Avalanche, there’s added excitement. It might open up some options for them that aren’t available to others.
“It’s still a good team. They can be a Stanley Cup contender. It’s about having the maneuverability to fill in the gaps if needed.”
What is, and what could be
The Avs enter the season down three impact forwards with the injury absences of Gabe Landeskog and Artturi Lehkonen, and suspension of Valeri Nichushkin. How will that affect the team’s lines on Game 1? And how might it look when all three are potentially back in the lineup by Game 82? Here’s our best guess:
Game 1
Left wing
Center
Right wing
First line
Jonathan Drouin
Nathan MacKinnon
Mikko Rantanen
Second line
Nikolai Kovalenko
Casey Mittelstadt
Calum Ritchie
Third line
Miles Wood
Ross Colton
Logan O’Connor
Fourth line
Ivan Ivan
Parker Kelly
Joel Kiviranta
Game 82
Left wing
Center
Right wing
First line
Jonathan Drouin
Nathan MacKinnon
Mikko Rantanen
Second line
Artturi Lehkonen
Casey Mittelstadt
Valeri Nichushkin
Third line
Miles Wood
Ross Colton
Logan O’Connor
Fourth line
Gabe Landeskog
Parker Kelly
Nikolai Kovalenko
(Can’t see in mobile? Click here.)
Want more Avalanche news? Sign up for the Avalanche Insider to get all our NHL analysis.