The race for the WNBA Rookie of the Year Award between Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese is heating up, as are the competing arguments around who deserves the honor more.
Haralabos “Bob” Voulgaris — a former front office executive with the Dallas Mavericks — took to social media on Friday, July 5, where he deconstructed and diminished an argument from ESPN’s Monica McNutt, in which she proposed that Reese deserves to win ROTY over Clark based on the success of each player’s respective team.
“I can’t think of an award where standings [are] less relevant than Rookie of the Year. If you are going to reach for excuses to account for your biases, try harder,” Voulgaris wrote as the caption above a video he re-posted on X, in which McNutt shared her opinion. “Clark is more impactful to winning in every metric, leads in every statistical category aside from rebounds (would be a fun dive to determine how many of Reese’s rebounds are contested or off her own missed shots). Get up, deal with it and move on.”
Chicago Sky, Angel Reese Slightly Ahead of Caitlin Clark, Indiana Fever in WNBA Standings
GettyAngel Reese of the Chicago Sky.
McNutt’s argument is based on collective success via win/loss record.
“I have said this all season … my Rookie of The Year is gonna go based on the standings because that is how you have the opportunity to measure impact,” McNutt said on the July 5 edition of “Get Up,” ESPN’s morning sports talk show. “And the [Chicago] Sky right now are in the playoffs, so you’d have to give the nod, in my mind, to Angel Reese.”
As of the morning of July 6, the Chicago Sky and Reese had a record of 8-11, while the Indiana Fever and Clark were 8-13. There are 12 teams in the WNBA, though league expansion will soon increase that total. But in 2024, the top eight squads out of those 12 make the playoffs. If the postseason began today, the Sky would be the No. 7 seed, while the Fever would be the last group in as the No. 8 seed.
McNutt went on to argue that Clark has more help around her on the Fever roster in the form of 2023 No. 1 overall pick Aliyah Boston and fellow guard Kelsey Mitchell. However, Indiana selected first again in 2024, which is fairly straightforward evidence that Chicago actually had the better roster before the two teams drafted their respective ROTY candidates in April.
Caitlin Clark Has Objectively Stronger Statistical Argument as WNBA Rookie of the Year
GettyCaitlin Clark of the Indiana Fever.
Analysts making determinations of who deserves individual accolades based on team success isn’t uncommon across sports, though it is, in general, a somewhat dubious path to travel.
Voulgaris, who became a multi-millionaire as a professional gambler betting on basketball before accepting the position of director of quantitative research and development for the Mavericks between 2018-21, cited the NBA Rookie of the Year race between Victor Wembanyama of the San Antonio Spurs and Chet Holmgren of the Oklahoma City Thunder last season as a recent example.
“Wemby [won] ROTY over Chet Holmgren, what a travesty — look how much better OKC was in the standings!” Voulgaris wrote as a comment on his own post initially criticizing McNutt’s take.
Clark is averaging 16.0 points, 7.1 assists, 5.7 rebounds and 1.3 steals for the Fever as a rookie. Reese is averaging 13.9 points, 11.7 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 1.4 steals per night for the Sky.
Neither woman has been particularly efficient offensively, with Clark shooting 39.1% from the field and Reese shooting 41%. However, most of Reese’s 11.7 shot attempts per game come near the basket, while 8 of Clark’s 12.3 shots per contest are from behind the 3-point line and have 1.5x the value of any 2-point shot when made.
Clark also turns the ball over more frequently than does Reese, with an average of 5.6 turnovers per game compared to Reese’s 1.8 turnovers. But, as Voulgaris pointed out, Clark’s assist-to-turnover ratio — which measures successful playmaking for one’s teammates against turnovers that cost one’s team possessions — is better than Reese’s at 1.26 compared to 1.06. Furthermore, Clark has a considerably higher usage rate of 25.9% compared to Reese’s 22.1%, which indicates that her team asks her to do more offensively.
Caitlin Clark, Angel Reese Drastically Upping Value of WNBA Product, Changing League’s Financial Future
GettyCaitlin Clark (left) and Angel Reese (right) during an NCAA matchup between Iowa and LSU.
In the end, both women are WNBA All-Stars as rookies and both deserve substantial credit for leading their teams despite the difficult transition from the college game to the vastly more competitive professional arena. The two will play together as teammates for the first time during the All-Star game on July 20.
Clark and Reese have helped drive WNBA television ratings to all-time highs this season, which will inevitably increase the league’s revenue on its next media-rights deal when the NBA negotiates it as part of its own new package following the 2024-25 campaign.
“We hope to at least double our rights fees,” Cathy Engelbert, commissioner of the WNBA, told CNBC in April 2024. “Women’s sports rights fees have been undervalued for too long, so we have this enormous opportunity at a time where the media landscape is changing so much. We’re really excited to get out in the marketplace.”
The WNBA’s current domestic media-rights deal is worth roughly $60 million. Doubling that figure will mean more exposure for the women’s game, higher salaries for all of its players and expanded endorsement opportunities for the league’s biggest stars — likely with Clark and Reese leading the charge.
As of July 2, Clark was a -600 favorite to win the 2024 ROTY Award in the WNBA, while Reese was in second place with +350 odds, per ESPN.
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