Sometimes, it’s OK to let the hot takes stay in the drafts folder.
ESPN’s Benjamin Solak had one of those moments recently when he ranked rookie quarterbacks and placed New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye ahead of Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels, the odds-on favorite to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
He also put Maye ahead of Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix, who has been Daniels’ stiffest competition for the honor.
“It is simultaneously true that Daniels has been excellent, that Nix has been good and that Maye has actually been the most impressive of the three,” Solak wrote on December 24. “And it doesn’t take anything away from Daniels or Nix that Maye has been so wonderful.”
Solak is right in that the shared success of the 3 quarterbacks shouldn’t take away from each other’s accomplishments – that Maye has either been successful or impressive as a rookie is where the true debate seems to live.
Commanders, Patriots Started ’24 on Equal Footing
The 2024 NFL draft was historic in terms of quarterbacks taken in the first round, with 6 going in the first 12 picks — that included Daniels at No. 2 overall and Maye at No. 3 overall.
The 6 quarterbacks taken in the first round tied the 1983 NFL draft for the most of all time.
” … I won’t let the Patriots’ record stop Maye from getting his deserved day in the sun in this crowded rookie class,” Solak said. “He has been at least as good — and I’d say better — as all of his contemporaries. And with good team building, the Patriots should be ready to vault into AFC East contention as soon as next season.”
Next season would be nice for Patriots fans. Right now would be better. A closer look shows the Commanders and Patriots entered the 2024 season on equal footing — both finished 4-13 in 2023 and both entered the 2024 season with first-year head coaches in Washington’s Dan Quinn and New England’s Jerod Mayo.
If anything, Maye had a better infrastructure in place to succeed with one of the NFL’s most vaunted franchises with 6 Super Bowl wins since 2001. Daniels joined a team that hasn’t won a Super Bowl since 1991 and hasn’t won a playoff game since 2005.
The Commanders entered the season with a projected win total of 6.5 and are currently 10-5.
The Broncos are 9-6 and were projected at 5.5 wins. The Patriots are 3-12 and were projected at 4.5 wins, which means they need wins over the Los Angeles Chargers and Buffalo Bills in the final 2 games of the regular season to join the Commanders and Broncos in exceeding their preseason projections.
By the Numbers: Daniels vs. Maye vs. Nix
We can use the average of Maye’s stats through 10 games to project where he might have been at with 15 games in order to more fairly compare him to Nix and Daniels, who both actually have 15 starts. Those numbers show the debate shouldn’t be if Maye is better than Daniels, but more along the lines of if he’s better than Nix.
Using Maye’s projected stats, Daniels still leads all 3 quarterbacks in wins (10), QB rating (101.3), passing yards (3,303), passing touchdowns (22), completion percentage (69.7), rushing yards (737) and rushing touchdowns (6), along with having the least amount of interceptions (8).
Even more incredible? Daniels’ stats are essentially for 14 games — he left a Week 7 win over the Carolina Panthers with a rib injury after just 1 offensive series.
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