AFC Championship Game Odds Signal Major Concern for Broncos Without Bo Nix

The Denver Broncos are used to being doubted by now. 

But even by their standards, the opening line for the AFC Championship Game raised a lot of eyebrows. 

As NBC Sports noted, despite hosting the New England Patriots at Empower Field at Mile High, the Denver Broncos opened as 4.5-point home underdogs.  

That number quickly grew to +5.5.

The odds reflect one thing above all else.

The absence of quarterback Bo Nix, who suffered a season-ending ankle injury late in Denver’s divisional-round win over the Buffalo Bills, is a complete game changer. 

With Jarrett Stidham now starting in his place, Denver is now the largest home underdog in a conference championship game since the 1970 NFL merger. 

They are the largest overall since the Browns faced the Colts in the 1968 title game. 

That level of skepticism in Denver ignores not just recent results, but where this game is being played.

Since the start of the 2024 season, the Denver Broncos have lost just three home games total, including only one loss at Empower Field this year. 

January football in Denver, with altitude, weather, and crowd noise, has long been considered one of the toughest environments in the league.

As one analyst put it: “Time to be the overdogs again.”

That line has defined Denver’s entire season.

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Patriots History in Denver Tells a Different Story

On paper, the matchup favors New England without Nix. 

The Patriots are coming off a turnover-heavy win over Houston and bring a defense that has forced chaos throughout the postseason. 

But history in Denver has not been kind to them. 

The Patriots are 0-4 all-time in playoff games at Mile High, including losses in the 2013 and 2015 AFC Championship Games with Tom Brady under center. 

We will see if MVP candidate Drake Maye can change the narrative. 

The Denver Broncos are also 4-1 as underdogs this season. 

Even this past Saturday, Denver opened as underdogs against the Bills. 

They eventually were slight favorites by kickoff and were able to survive an overtime thriller. 

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Can Denver Still Win the Super Bowl?

Oddsmakers aren’t just fading the Broncos this week. 

They are fading their entire championship outlook. 

Denver now owns the worst remaining Super Bowl odds at +1100, while New England sits at +260. 

Yet inside the Denver Broncos’ locker room, belief hasn’t wavered, especially from head coach Sean Payton.

Payton has made it clear he trusts Jarrett Stidham to step into the spotlight.

“He’s ready,” Payton said. “I’ve got a No. 2 that’s capable of starting for a number of teams.”

He warned those counting out the Broncos: 

“Watch out. Just watch.”

The Broncos have heard the noise all season. 

Fans and the media have continued to doubt them and they’ve continued to stack wins each time. 

However, without Bo Nix, the challenge is steeper. 

But Denver has been in this position all year. And once again they will try to prove the doubters wrong and head to San Francisco for a chance to win the Super Bowl. 

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