The 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 is underway, and while the big favorites remain on track, five matchups stand out as genuine upset opportunities, games where the underdog has the tactical profile, knockout experience, and squad depth to send a heavyweight home early.
Knockout football rewards the organized and the opportunistic. Group-stage form matters, but so does knowing how to survive the tournament’s most unforgiving format, and several of this round’s so-called underdogs know exactly how to do that.
1. Morocco over the Netherlands (June 29, Monterrey)
GettyWill Morocco upset the Netherlands in the Round of 32?
The Netherlands scored 10 goals in three group-stage matches, which is impressive, until you consider who Morocco are. The Atlas Lions drew with Brazil to open the tournament, then dispatched Scotland and Haiti, carrying nine veterans of their 2022 semifinal run into the knockout stage, according to ESPN‘s Ed Dove.
Morocco captain Achraf Hakimi and Real Madrid’s Brahim Diaz give the Atlas Lions attacking star power to match their defensive structure. The Dutch are the tournament’s most prolific side, but Morocco are more tactically adroit â a team that can shift tempo, absorb pressure, and punish on the break. According to FanSided‘s Bryan Zarpentine, the Netherlands have the toughest Round of 32 draw of any of the 12 group winners. This one ends with Morocco advancing.
2. Senegal over Belgium (July 1, Seattle)
GettySenegal has a shot at defeating Belgium.
Belgium’s Golden Generation has gone grey. The Red Devils opened with back-to-back draws against Egypt and Iran before rallying for a 5-1 win over New Zealand â hardly a banner group stage. Senegal, meanwhile, became the first team in World Cup history to reach the knockout stage after losing its opening two games, doing so by dismantling Iraq 5-0.
The Lions of Teranga have the athleticism, pressing intensity, and attacking depth to exploit a Belgium side that no longer moves like it once did. Despite their stumbles, Senegal outscored every group-stage team except the Netherlands, Germany, and France, Dove at ESPN notes. Coach Pape Thiaw also dropped veteran Kalidou Koulibaly from the backline, tightening the defense considerably. Belgium is vulnerable. Senegal pulls off the stunner.
3. Algeria over Switzerland (July 2, Vancouver)
GettyAlgeria is on upset watch over Switzerland.
Algeria came into the knockout round on the back of a 3-3 draw with Austria that showed the team’s character â tenacious, technically gifted, and unintimidated by European opposition. Riyad Mahrez remains one of the most dangerous wide players in the tournament, and Ibrahim Maza and Rafik Belghali have been in outstanding form throughout the group stage, according to ESPN’s Dove.
Switzerland are a reliable, well-organized side with strong knockout pedigree, but they can be exposed when opponents stretch their defensive shape with pace and creativity. Algeria’s wing play and flair give them precisely those tools. The Swiss will make it competitive, but Algeria’s attacking quality tips this one in their favor.
4. Egypt over Australia (July 3, Arlington)
GettyEgypt is primed to knock off favored Australia.
Egypt reached the knockout round for the first time in the tournament’s modern era, and they have not just survived this World Cup, they have looked genuinely dangerous. Mohamed Salah is dealing with a minor hamstring concern but is expected to play, with capable supporting options around him.
Australia are resilient and physical, but their creative output in the final third is limited. Egypt’s technical superiority in possession, combined with their set-piece threat, gives them a meaningful edge against a Socceroos side that will need to be perfect to stay in this one. Egypt advances to the Round of 16.
5. Croatia over Portugal (July 2, Toronto)
GettyLuka Modric and Croatia are picked to upset Portugal.
Croatia has made a habit of defying expectations at World Cups. The 2018 finalists, who also reached the semifinals in 2022, still have Luka Modric and Mateo Kovacic orchestrating a midfield that understands knockout bracket survival better than almost anyone, as Zarpentine at FanSided details.
Portugal entered the Round of 32 compromised. They drew their final group match against Colombia under Miami’s punishing heat, finished second in the group, and carry a shorter turnaround than any group winner. Their only win came against Uzbekistan. Cristiano Ronaldo’s tournament influence has waned, and the squad has shown tactical vulnerability against organized, veteran opposition. Croatia keeps it tight, finds a winner on a set piece or a moment of individual quality, and punches through to the Round of 16.
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