Critics described Donald Trump’s Republican National Convention acceptance speech as about 20 minutes of “muted, nice and gracious” — followed by 50-odd minutes of what David Brooks called “one of the truly awful and self-indulgent political performances of our time.”
That assessment helps explain famous pollster Nate Silver‘s 180-degree about-face as he live-tweeted the speech — and also helps underscore why Silver is most famous for expertly parsing the data after it has already been collected, not in real-time as it drips in, since obviously things can and do change quickly.
Those mutable things on Thursday night included Trump’s changeling temperament and comportment during his lengthy speech.
Silver, who started off thinking that Trump was pragmatically dining a la carte off the disastrous menu Democrats have served up in recent weeks, soon had a case of SMDH — shake my damn head — at the GOP nominee proceeded from inspired to boring to increasingly speaking in agitated, vengeful, divisive tones and losing the advantage he came in with.
If you didn’t watch Trump’s speech, here is a summary of how it went. pic.twitter.com/KbOsWmztjU
— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) July 19, 2024
Silver called the beginning a “weird but pretty good speech” before he said he wrote “semi-retract this tweet” and later “fully RETRACT and RESCIND.” Acknowledging that the Dems were flailing and that Trump seemed incapable of the discipline required to seize the moment, Silver wrote: “Sometimes it seems like both parties are trying to throw this election.”
Silver was only addressing Trump’s speech, not those which preceded it, such as wrestler Hulk Hogan’s introduction (below).
A neutral observer from any other country on earth can tell: we are in serious trouble. pic.twitter.com/1nkRehQxch
— Justin Horwitz (@JustinAHorwitz) July 19, 2024
In gratitude, Trump blew kisses to Hogan for his strenuous effort:
Trump blowing a kiss to Hulk Hogan…this cult is soooooo weird pic.twitter.com/drRpg63piP
— Wu Tang is for the Children (@WUTangKids) July 19, 2024
Silver didn’t identify which parts of Trump’s speech caused him to “fully retract” his “good speech” assessment, but its major topics are listed below in a tweet via Ben Meiselas. They include common Trump rally themes like immigrants coming from “mental institutions” and praise for Hungary’s authoritarian leader Viktor Orban, which drew cheers from the RNC crowd.
Donald Trump said the following at his RNC speech tonight:
1. He asked if people knew his friend the “late great Hannibal Lecter.”
2. He praised Hungary’s authoritarian leader Viktor Orban.
3. He said North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un missed him.
4. He attacked the UAW…
— Ben Meiselas (@meiselasb) July 19, 2024