Former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury and former Director of the National Economic Council Lawrence Summers has been sharing his opinions on President Donald Trump‘s economic policies and tariffs on various media outlets, including Bloomberg and CNN.
Summers has said repeatedly that Trump’s tariffs “are pretty much all downside as economic policy.”
This week on CNN, the President Emeritus at Harvard addressed a new report from the University of Michigan that reveals “consumer confidence falling sharply, down to its lowest level in more than two years.”
According to the survey: “Americans are increasingly worried by President Trump’s frequently changing economic policies and the threat of tariffs, making products from around the world even more expensive for consumers in the United States.”
Summers said Americans are right to feel worried. He said: “This is like being in the back of a car where the driver is weaving wildly.”
He added another analogy: “I think we’re only in the second inning of our problems unless the President and his administration make a radical change in course.”
— Lawrence H. Summers (@LHSummers) March 14, 2025
When asked if he foresees a recession, Summers said before the inauguration in January he thought the risk of a recession was 10 or 15 percent. Now, he said, “I am convinced there is nearly a 50 percent chance of recession, and maybe even a far greater risk of recession, unless the current policy approach of tariff threats lurching is altered.”
Economist Vance Ginn, who worked at the Office of Management and Budget during the first Trump administration, replied to Summers on X: “While I agree that the cost and uncertainty driven by the trade war are major drags on growth, the risk of a recession is mainly because of the fragile economy under the progressive, unsustainable policies by Biden-Congress-Fed.”
Former Senior Adviser in the World Bank’s Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) Network Milan Brahmblatt also replied: “As you know from your time at the World Bank, @LHSummers, many of Trump’s moves can be described as ‘structural adjustment,’ which is usually painful and unpopular in the short term. He is cramming it all into his first months, perhaps to maximize the chances of smoother sailing later.”
Brahmblatt added: “Given how mixed the evidence is on such reforms, it’s going to be a mighty interesting experiment.”