Just four races remain until the NASCAR Cup Series grid is set for the return of The Chase. For the first time since 2014, it is no longer a win-and-you’re in format. Instead, the top 16 drivers in the regular season standings will qualify for the postseason.
It’s quite simple, too: There are no more rounds and eliminations. The drivers will be seeded based upon their position at the end of the regular season, and the champion will be crowned based on who does the best in the final 10 races.
But throughout the 2026 season, there have certainly been some surprises about who is inside of The Chase standings after 22 races and who is on the outside looking-in.
Who Will Make The Chase As Of Now?
The biggest surprise of the 2026 NASCAR season — by far — is Spire Motorsports’ Carson Hocevar. Obviously, industry insiders know he is talented, but Spire has been a mid-pack team with sporatic runs at the front of the field. This year, Hocevar has upped the team’s performance mightily, sitting fifth in the standings after scoring his first career win at Talladega. But it wasn’t just his win that stands out. Hocevar, who is in his third full-time season, has improved his average finish by seven spots to 14.1. His five top fives and nine top 10s have him sitting comfortable, and he is surprisingly the highest-ranked Chevrolet driver ahead of Hendrick Motorsports’ Chase Elliott.
Speaking of Hendrick, three of the four drivers for HMS are inside of The Chase as of now. However, Elliott is the only driver on the team to win (twice) in 2026.
Two-time Cup champion Kyle Larson is mired back in eighth in the standings, while William Byron is 12th.
Another surprise is Hocevar’s Spire teammate Daniel Suarez, who is having his most consistent year to date. He moved from Trackhouse Racing over the offseason to Spire, and he already has a win (Charlotte), two top fives and six top 10s. He is on pace to earn a career-best 14.7 average finish. He is sitting a comfortable 103 points ahead of the cutoff line with four races left.
Trackhouse Racing’s only driver inside of The Chase with four races remaining is Shane van Gisbergen, who won two of the road course races in 2026. Though his win total is down from five in 2025, his consistency has improved greatly, with an average finish of 17.5. He is slowly developing a knack for overals, specifically short tracks, though he earned a top five at Nashville and has run well at Charlotte, Martinsville, North Wilkesboro and Atlanta. However, his lack of consistency may be costly, as he is a mere 57 points ahead of the cutline with Iowa, Richmond, New Hampshire and Daytona left on the schedule.
Who Is On The Outside Of The Chase Cutline As Of Now?
RFK Racing only has one car, Chris Buescher, in The Chase right now. Both Ryan Preece and team owner Brad Keselowski are on the outside looking-in, which is not a shock given Ford’s overall struggles this year.
Preece is the first driver outside, sitting 17th. Even with Ford’s lack of speed, he ran consistently inside of the top 15 until the spring, as he’s had six finishes of 24th or worse in the last 10 races. He’s entering several tracks that are great for the No. 60 team, as he finished fifth at Iowa last year, won the pole at Richmond, and he can certainly perform well at New Hampshire (though his best finish is 11th).
For a while, it seemed Legacy Motor Club’s Erik Jones would be the surprise of The Chase. However, after briefly jumping inside of the top-16, he has dropped to 18th in the standings and will need very strong runs over the next four weeks to make The Chase.
But the biggest surprise of who is not in The Chase is Trackhouse’s Ross Chastain. The No. 1 team has struggled with new crew chief Brandon McSwain, with a shocking decline in performance for a proven title contender. He has just one top five and four top 10s. He is 82 points behind the cutoff, which isn’t impossible to make up, but it will certainly be difficult unless he suddenly heats up again.
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