The Philadelphia 76ers assembled enough scoring talent to pursue a championship, but their new lineup presents a numbers problem. LeBron James, Jaylen Brown, Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid and V.J. Edgecombe all require shots, and a new projection identifies Brown and Maxey as the players facing the largest sacrifices.
Casino.org Canada estimates that Brown and Maxey will lose a combined 10.3 to 12.6 points per game when Philadelphia fields all five starters. Their combined scoring would slide from 57.0 points to between 44.4 and 46.7, an 18% to 22% reduction.
Why Brown and Maxey Project to Lose the Most
Brown entered the study at 28.7 points on 21.7 attempts per game, while Maxey produced 28.3 points on 21.4 shots. The model lowers Brown to a range of 22.4 to 23.5 points. Maxey projects between 22.0 and 23.2.
Those declines reflect Philadelphia’s limited possessions, not a predicted drop in either player’s ability. The projected starting group attempted 90.4 shots per game across their previous seasons. The entire 76ers roster averaged 90.3.
Even removing Edgecombe leaves a crowded offense. James, Brown, Maxey and Embiid previously combined for 76.7 attempts, 15% more than Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green carried into Durant’s first season with Golden State.
The five Philadelphia starters also produced 120.8 points per game in total. Even if the 76ers created the highest-scoring offense in league history, the model says the group would still need to surrender 21.9 to 26.7 points from its former averages. The upper figure nearly matches Embiid’s previous 26.9-point average.
Philadelphia made major investments to form that lineup. The 76ers sent Paul George, two first-round selections and two second-rounders to Boston for Brown on July 1. They later reached a two-year, $8 million agreement with James after Brown, Embiid and Maxey reportedly helped recruit him.
Superteam History Supports the Scoring Forecast
Past superteams point toward the same result. Every player in the study who entered such a lineup after averaging at least 28 points suffered a scoring decrease. The median drop among those 10 players reached 5.4 points.
The leading scorer also declined in 13 of the 14 teams examined. Brown and Maxey each project to lose between 5.1 and 6.3 points, putting their estimated reductions close to that historical trend.
However, the complete lineup may encounter this problem infrequently. The availability model projects all five starters to appear together only 14 to 19 times. Phoenix’s Big Three managed 41 games, while the 2012-13 Lakers‘ four stars played 22 together and went 8-14.
The study counts every absence without describing each missed game as an injury. That creates two possible roles for Brown and Maxey. They may accept fewer opportunities when the lineup reaches full strength, then recover shots whenever one or more teammates sit.
Brown’s offseason work offers useful context for that adjustment. During a Twitch workout in Egypt with shooting coach Chris Matthews, better known as Lethal Shooter, Brown stressed âEfficiency, mindset, focused, discipline.â
That focus could matter beside James and Embiid, especially when open perimeter attempts replace some of Brown’s self-created offense. The projection does not claim to know Philadelphia’s coaching decisions. It does show the unavoidable tradeoff: the 76ers can load their lineup with proven scorers, but they cannot preserve every player’s old production at the same time.
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