The Houston Texans have a long way to go before the regular season, but predictions about their approach next spring, including the potential addition of veteran Pro Bowl quarterback Baker Mayfield of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, have already surfaced.
There are two key elements (and really three) to that becoming a reality.
The first is straightforward: the Texans move on from C.J. Stroud. The second is that Mayfield must fail to sign a new contract with the Bucs and choose the Texans in free agency.
Baker Mayfield Predicted to Sign With Texans in Free Agency
GettyBaker Mayfield could be the Houston Texans QB of the future.
SB Nation’s Jarrett Bailey predicted Mayfield, the first overall pick of the 2018 draft by the Cleveland Browns, will make the Texans his fifth NFL franchise as a free agent in 2027.
“Baker Mayfield is from Austin, which is about a two and a half hour drive from Houston. Despite a respectable 2026 season that sees Mayfield throw for 4,000 yards and 31 touchdowns, the Bucs miss the playoffs. He decides to return home to a team that needs an upgrade at quarterback after being eliminated in the divisional round for the fourth consecutive year despite having the league’s top defense,” Bailey wrote on July 22.
“While some may ask why the Texans would go this route, ask yourself what you would rather have – C.J. Stroud on an extension between $45-55 million per year or Baker Mayfield on a shorter-term deal for less money and additional first-round picks? I know which one I’d choose.”
Mayfield is on an expiring three-year, $100 million deal, with $131.7 million in career earnings.
He and the Buccaneers have been far apart in their recent negotiations. However, the two sides are expected to find common ground.
The Buccaneers can also use the franchise tag on Mayfield, and they can use it up to three times. So, the Texans would need several dominoes to fall before Mayfield suited up for them next season and beyond.
Baker Mayfield on Ironman Run
GettyBaker Mayfield shook off injuries to lead the Buccaneers to victory over the Texans in 2025
A debate can certainly be had about the Texans potentially letting go of Stroud for an older, possibly more expensive option, particularly with their salary cap issues.
One thing that the current version of Mayfield can boast that Stroud cannot is his durability.
Mayfield has made 51 consecutive regular-season starts for the Buccaneers. He also revealed that he shook off some issues during a Week 2 matchup against the Texans on “Monday Night Football” last season to lead Tampa Bay to victory.
Stroud has missed multiple games in two of his three NFL seasons. Moreover, both times were due to concussions.
Of course, Mayfield has had his share of injury concerns. There also remains a question about whether the best version of him compares to that of Stroud. The argument can also be made that Mayfield’s career arc is reason enough for the Texans to retain Stroud.
They would certainly hope for a quicker turnaround for Stroud in that case.
If availability is the most important ability, Mayfield’s recent track record is more encouraging than Stroud’s. That is particularly true since suffering concussions increases the chances of more.
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