One J.J. McCarthy Metric Reveals a Possible Life Line to Revive His Career

It’s no secret that Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J McCarthy struggled last season in his first year as the starter. Injuries and inconsistent play derailed the season for Minnesota, but McCarthy’s poor performance may have been a bit overblown according to one key metric. 

In Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) 2026 QB Annual, they dissected McCarthy’s play, and found one interesting footnote to his underwhelming season. 

According to PFF, McCarthy had the worst interception luck in the league. 

“J.J. McCarthy’s 12 interceptions on 243 attempts told a harsh story in the box score,” wrote Mark Chichester. “The interception total doesn’t tell the whole story. McCarthy’s net interception luck of -5.25 was the worst among qualifying quarterbacks, with 12 actual interceptions despite an expected total of only 6.75. Defenders rarely let him off the hook, dropping just three of his 15 interception opportunities and only two turnover-worthy throws.”

J.J. McCarthy PFF Metric Gives Some Hope for his Future

Unfortunately for McCarthy, defenders had unusually sticky hands when it came to his passes in 2025. Still, he didn’t do himself any favors either. PFF also noted that McCarthy only had 51.7% of his passes deemed as accurate, which ranked 42nd out of 43 qualified passers. Even his throws that were catchable were typical coming in just off-target. 

“The accuracy data adds another layer,” Chichester continued. “McCarthy’s catchable but inaccurate rate — the share of his aimed passes that were catchable but poorly placed — was 25.4%, the second-highest among qualifying passers. In other words, more than one in four of his aimed passes arrived off target enough to cost the receiver an opportunity after the catch or force an unnecessary adjustment.”

Ultimately, McCarthy was one of the least accurate passers in the NFL last season, but to make matters worse, he also didn’t catch any breaks when it came to pure luck either. If he does beat out Kyler Murray for the starting job in 2026, it’s reasonable to expect some positive regression when it comes to his unfortunate luck with interceptions. 

Kevin O’Connell Talks QB Battle Ahead of Training Camp

Head coach Kevin O’Connell addressed the quarterback competition, which is expected to go into August, earlier this week at the American Century Championship. 

“What we’ve tried to do is put together a world where the quarterback — whoever is in the game for us — can prepare and simply do their job,” O’Connell said. “When you get quality play at that position — and what that looks like can look a lot different depending on guys’ skill set — it just leads to so many avenues to your team having a chance to win different types of games.” 

McCarthy didn’t show enough in 10 games last season to get a free pass again this year, so the Vikings brought in veteran Kyler Murray to compete. With Super Bowl aspirations and a prime Justin Jefferson, Minnesota won’t be taking this decision lightly.

While Murray is widely believed to be the favorite, many also figured the battle would already be wrapped. The pair of signal callers will take the battle into training camp and potentially even into preseason. 

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