The Dallas Stars will now have an even harder time signing Jason Robertson. It’s not that the 40-goal scorer wants to leave Dallas. It’s that the Leo Carlsson offer sheet transformed the NHL world significantly.
The Carlsson offer sheet was akin to a nuclear blast that tilted the Earth’s axis just a fraction of a degree. That might not seem like a lot, but it’s enough to shift weather patterns, increase climate change, and even wipe out certain species.
That’s the sort of effect this offer sheet, with Robertson and the Stars not being immune to it.
The situation here is not that Jason Robertson will now demand Carlsson-like money. It’s that the market will now force everyone to rethink contracts. Since the Philadelphia Flyers were bold enough to step in with such a massive offer for Carlsson, what’s stopping another organization from pulling off a similar move for Robertson?
The market has shifted, without the league fully understanding its ramifications. While that will become clearer in the coming weeks, there’s no telling just how much it could affect other RFAs, like Jason Robertson, Connor Bedard, Adam Fantilli, and Cutter Gauthier, among others.
Dallas Stars Cap Space Will Get in the Way
The Dallas Stars hoped that they could ink Jason Robertson to a long-term deal somewhere in the vicinity of $12 million AAV. It’s the baseline that Mikko Rantanen set with his contract last season, and something that would have made the team’s cap situation manageable.
However, news broke that Robertson’s camp had passed on a $15 million AAV offer from the Seattle Kraken. While the reasons for the pass are not totally clear, the refusal ignited concerns around the league.
This was a young star turning down such a massive payday. Did Robertson’s camp have any inkling of what the Flyers were willing to pay for Carlsson? If so, did they just hold out for a better deal?
Would a desperate team like the Kraken recalibrate their offer and come back with a similar deal as the Flyers?
Those questions could pretty much explain why the Dallas Stars can’t keep Jason Robertson. The team has just under $10 million in cap space.
That’s without Robertson’s contract on the books. If they added, say, $15 million to books, a massive cap-clearing move would ensue.
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Could Jason Robertson Take Another Route?
This entire conversation is predicated on the fact that Jason Robertson is a restricted free agent. He is one year away from becoming an unrestricted free agent. At that point, the Dallas Stars would no longer hold his rights.
Next summer, Robertson could hit the open market and talk to anybody he wishes without any limitations.
To get there, Robertson could just accept Dallas’ official $9.3 million qualifying offer. Extending the offer was a formality for the organization to retain Robertson’s right. But what if the 26-year-old accepted the offer? It would be a one-year deal, and walk Robertson straight to unrestricted free agency next summer.
That’s something that both Robertson and the Stars may be looking at as a way out of this conundrum. While the solution would only kick the can down the road, it would be the sort of thing that could buy everyone more time.
It might not be the ideal way out, but it would be a way of avoiding what seems like mutually assured destruction.
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