Two events outside Blackhawks star Connor Bedard’s control have ignited anxiety surrounding his situation this summer.
The first event: the apparent left shoulder injury Bedard suffered while skating Thursday in Vancouver. It will take a few days to clarify the injury’s severity, leaving his availability for next season muddled in the meantime.
The second event: the Flyers’ bombshell offer sheet tendered Friday to Ducks center Leo Carlsson, a restricted free agent just like Bedard.
Bedard, Carlsson and Blue Jackets center Adam Fantilli, the top three picks from the 2023 draft, had been waiting for each other to make the first move and set the market. Carlsson’s first move proved shocking.
The five-year offer sheet Carlsson signed — it’s important to note “offer sheet” means the player has already agreed, despite the confusing terminology — will make him the NHL’s highest-paid player next season with an $18 million salary-cap hit.
That will be true whether or not the Ducks decide to match it. If they let him walk, they’ll receive the Flyers’ next four first-round picks as compensation.
Carlsson, 21, is objectively not worth $18 million per year, even though he is a sturdy, well-rounded, blossoming star who tallied 67 points in 70 games last season.
Carlsson isn’t quite on the same level as Bedard, who recorded 75 points in 69 games last season with a worse supporting cast. And Carlsson is nowhere near the same level as Sharks star Macklin Celebrini, who had 115 points in 82 games and will be an RFA next summer (after becoming extension-eligible this week).
Nevertheless, $18 million per year was evidently what it took to win the sweepstakes for Carlsson — other teams reportedly also presented offers — as well as what it might take to dissuade infamously thrifty Ducks general manager Pat Verbeek from matching the contract. He has seven days to decide.
For the Ducks, who also have two other high-profile RFAs to deal with in Cutter Gauthier and Pavel Mintyukov — who immediately becomes another appealing offer-sheet candidate — it’s a nightmarish scenario.
For the Hawks, meanwhile, it’s not necessarily a problem — but it might be. The immediate concern is whether there’s any chance of Bedard himself becoming an offer-sheet threat.
There are many reasons not to worry. First, Bedard has repeatedly indicated that he plans to spend a long time with the Hawks and believes in the franchise’s plan. Second, he and Hawks GM Kyle Davidson communicate frequently, including during Davidson’s controversial acquisition of Bowen Byram — a friend of Bedard’s — last week.
Third, Bedard dislikes drama. Fourth, Bedard might have a bigger immediate concern in the form of his injury. And fifth, if the Flyers approached Bedard before approaching Carlsson, which seems plausible, clearly nothing came to fruition there.
But until a contract is inked with the Hawks, nothing can be ruled out, and the Hawks’ fan base will be understandably nervous. It didn’t help that The Athletic’s Chris Johnston reported Friday another offer sheet around the league could be imminent, even though Mintyukov and Stars winger Jason Robertson are more likely candidates.
The other concern — and the more relevant one, in all likelihood — is how Carlsson’s contract changes Bedard’s negotiations with the Hawks.
Before Friday, a cap hit between $13 million and $16 million seemed like the probable range for Bedard’s next contract, assuming he signed for the maximum length of eight years.
Now, Bedard has a data point indicating he might be worth more than $18 million per year in this fast-rising cap environment. His agents could technically demand as much as $20.8 million.
Davidson would counter-argue that a more reasonable salary would give him more opportunity to build a competitive team around Bedard, and Bedard’s prior comments suggest he would be amenable to that argument. But in the Wild West that is the NHL right now, it’s impossible to predict exactly where this is headed.