The NHL’s weakest free-agent market in recent memory, strongest trade market in recent memory and fastest-rising salary cap in history creates a strange dynamic heading into Wednesday.
That dynamic is particularly strange for the Blackhawks as general manager Kyle Davidson tries to straddle the line between building for the future and accelerating the timeline.
The opening of free agency at 11 a.m. CT on July 1 is typically a seismic event in the hockey calendar, and it may still be this year — but not for the usual reason.
Plenty of free agents will still sign with new teams, but few are major-impact players. It’s telling that the highest-scoring UFAs available are Anthony Mantha, who’s far from a household name, and Alex Ovechkin, a household name who’s 40 years old.
The highest-scoring free agent under the age of 31 is Matias Maccelli, who tallied all of 39 points last season. And among all UFA defensemen, only four recorded more than 27 points last season.
Yet plenty will still get paid large sums Wednesday (and beyond) because most teams have boatloads of cap space to play with — and because such a strong anti-rebuilding culture has overtaken the league’s GMs.
Every GM wants to improve his team and has ample means, yet scarce opportunities, to do so. The resulting mindset of desperation is going to lead to some dumb, regrettable contracts getting handed out.
One of those, in fact, may go to new Hawks defenseman Bowen Byram, whom Davidson acquired last week knowing full well he would have to “put our money where our mouth is” to re-sign him.
Since Byram currently sits just one year away from UFA status and knows the Hawks just gave the Sabres three valuable assets to acquire him, he holds almost all leverage.
Byram said he intended to sign in Chicago long-term, and it sounds like he indeed will. But he’s about to at least temporarily become one of the league’s highest-paid defensemen — his cap hit will almost certainly exceed $10 million — even though he hasn’t yet proven he’s a No. 1.
The Byram extension is one basically guaranteed piece of Hawks news Wednesday. Will there be much other news? That remains to be seen.
The Hawks could dabble in the free-agent market, perhaps to add a veteran defenseman. John Carlson and Jacob Trouba are the two most prominent names in that category. Penalty-killing forward Ilya Mikheyev could also circle back to them if unimpressed by his offers.
But since Davidson isn’t seeking depth — he has more than enough youngsters and prospects ready to compete for roster spots — he likely won’t be too active quantity-wise.
Odds are Davidson won’t be too active on the trade market, either, but if he does do something on that front, it’s more likely to be significant.
Stars winger Jason Robertson, a restricted free agent, remains available, the drama around his situation having taken a brief pause after many twists and turns last week.
But would the Stars be willing to trade him for solely picks and prospects? Would Robertson be willing to sign with the Hawks? And would Davidson be willing to pay him $15 million or more?
The Hawks aren’t in the conversation for the three American stars — Dylan Larkin, Zach Werenski and Connor Hellebuyck — trying to force their way out of struggling teams, but when and where they each move will send domino effects throughout the market.
There are a decent number of other top-six forwards available — including Matthew Knies (Maple Leafs), Kirill Marchenko (Blue Jackets), Jake DeBrusk (Canucks), Rickard Rakell (Penguins) and Tomas Hertl (Golden Knights) — but they’re all either aging or would cost a ton to acquire.
Meanwhile, a new Connor Bedard contract doesn’t seem imminent, even though that is one other piece of big Hawks news that will arrive at some point this summer.
