The New York Knicks may have already tipped their hand on Mitchell Robinson‘s future.
Robinson entered the offseason acknowledging that free agency would determine whether he remained with the Knicks beyond their championship season. New salary-cap projections now paint an increasingly difficult path toward a return.
After agreeing to bring back veteran guard Landry Shamet in free agency, New York appears increasingly likely to lose Robinson, according to salary cap expert Yossi Gozlan of The Third Apron.
The prediction stems from the Knicks’ continued effort to remain below the NBA’s punitive second salary apron, a financial line owner James Dolan has repeatedly indicated he does not want the franchise to cross.
If that mandate remains in place, Gozlan believes Robinson’s days in New York could be numbered.
Shamet Deal Could Have Sealed Robinson’s Fate
GettyLandry Shamet celebrates after a made basket during the Knicks’ 2026 championship season. The veteran guard agreed to a four-year, $24 million contract to remain in New York after drawing interest from multiple teams in free agency.
Appearing on Knicks Fan TV, Gozlan explained why the Shamet agreement may signal that the Knicks have already chosen how to allocate their remaining financial flexibility.
“I guess that first depends on how much James Dolan’s comments about the second apron were for sure the plan,” Gozlan said. “If there is a mandate to stay under the second apron, then they could have brought back one of Mitchell Robinson or Landry Shamet while keeping the starters and filling up the bench with minimum salaries.”
Instead, New York used one of its remaining salary slots on Shamet.
“They are giving that salary slot to Landry Shamet,” Gozlan said. “So they have even more wiggle room now to fill out the rest of the roster.”
His conclusion was blunt.
“If that second apron mandate is absolutely the plan, then that’s it. Mitchell Robinson’s gone.”
Knicks May Not Be Able to Match the Market
Robinson is widely expected to command offers well beyond what the Knicks can realistically afford if they remain below the second apron.
“He’s probably going to get offers above what they can offer now,” Gozlan said. “Now they could really only offer him four or five million dollars. He’s not going to accept that.”
SNY’s Ian Begley reported the Knicks would likely need to shed salary to make Robinson a competitive offer approaching $14 million annually.
According to Begley, New York currently sits at roughly $213 million in team salary with 11 players under contract, while the NBA’s second apron is at $221.7 million.
To create meaningful flexibility, the Knicks would likely need to trade players such as Pacôme Dadiet, Tyler Kolek or Miles McBride.
Trade Market Could Become Knicks’ Best Option
Rather than replacing Robinson in free agency, Gozlan believes New York could ultimately turn to the trade market.
The Knicks still have roughly $8.8 million below the second apron but must fill three roster spots, leaving little spending power unless additional salary is moved.
Gozlan suggested New York could package one of its young players along with the draft capital it accumulated during last week’s draft.
The Knicks now own six additional second-round picks and also control future pick swaps that could be used to acquire a rotation-caliber center without sacrificing their long-term flexibility.
“I would anticipate,” Gozlan said, “that they probably figure out something with Dadiet or maybe McBride, trade their salaries to bring in a big man.”
Championship Roster Still Has Biggest Question
The Knicks have spent the early stages of free agency retaining key contributors while carefully navigating the salary cap.
They recently re-signed Landry Shamet and are expected to leave second-round pick Jack Kayil in Germany for another season, moves that preserve additional roster flexibility.
But Robinson remains the franchise’s biggest unresolved offseason decision.
The defensive anchor has been a cornerstone of New York’s frontcourt throughout its rise to the 2026 NBA championship, and replacing his rim protection and rebounding would be no easy task.
For now, the Knicks continue weighing their options.
If Gozlan’s salary-cap math proves accurate, however, Shamet’s return may have quietly signaled Robinson’s departure.
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