By now, Gavin McKenna seems like the slam-dunk choice for the Toronto Maple Leafs’ first-overall pick in the 2026 NHL Draft.
There’s no blaming Toronto for picking McKenna. He’s the most talented player in the draft. The 18-year-old forward offers the Maple Leafs the best chance to add a true elite-level talent to complement other high-end pieces on the team.
But there’s also a sliver of concern. That concern has to do with another former first-overall pick. That pick was Nail Yakupov.
The Russian winger was head and shoulders above the most offensively talented forward in his draft year. The Oilers held the first-overall pick in 2012, and, well, Yakupov’s numbers in 2010-11, 49 goals and 101 points in 65 games, looked tantalizing.
Incidentally, the Maple Leafs held the fifth-overall pick that season and used it on a defenseman named Morgan Rielly.
Back to Yakupov. His draft year, 2011-12, saw his numbers remain high. He scored 31 goals and 69 points in 42 games for the Sarnia Sting.
It was hard to pass up such a talented forward, even if his defensive shortcomings and apparent lack of discipline stood out as red flags. The Oilers wanted the best player available, and Yakupov was that.
Maple Leafs Could See Parallels Between Yakupov and McKenna
There are some parallels that the Maple Leafs could see between Yakupov and McKenna. For one, Yakupov wasn’t exactly a defensively reliable forward. He was notorious for lazy backchecking, didn’t show any sort of defensive effort, and was often the subject of speculation for his lack of effort at times.
Unfortunately, his offensive numbers in the NHL didn’t make up for his one-sided game. In his rookie season, Yakupov scored 17 goals and 31 points in 48 games.
That was it. That was Yakupov’s best season.
That’s something the Maple Leafs must keep in mind. Perhaps Yakupov’s bust as a first-overall pick could be pinned on the Oilers inability to develop him adequately.
That’s why Toronto must keep in mind that McKenna is hardly perfect. Hence, there’s a clear need to help him develop much the way the organization did with other high-end prospects like William Nylander, Mitch Marner, and, of course, Auston Matthews.
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Toronto Can’t Afford to Pass Up on McKenna
There is a line of thinking out there positing that the Maple Leafs should take a defenseman like Chase Reid first overall. Other pundits have advocated for Ivar Stenberg. While both would be fine choices, they’re not what the Maple Leafs need at #1.
The Leafs need to take a chance on the best player available in the draft. That’s Gavin McKenna. Regardless of clear positional needs like a top-pairing defenseman, it’s evident that McKenna is the best piece for the club at this juncture.
Fortunately, it’s in the Maple Leafs’ hands to prevent McKenna from turning into Yakupov. The organization can use its vast resources to ensure that McKenna turns into Patrick Kane and doesn’t flame out like Yakupov did in Edmonton.
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