LAS VEGAS — As though England didn’t have enough pressure, building by the decades and punctuated by penalty-kick futility, since claiming its lone World Cup on its own turf in 1966.
A data engineer compiled information, from kickoff times to travel distance, temperature, humidity, altitude, etc., to gauge each team’s group-stage ‘‘burden rating,’’ and only one side has it tougher than the Three Lions.
Uzbekistan.
Bob Yakubov, an analyst and soccer scout near Kansas City, where England will be headquartered, created the figures.
It’s the final bit of minutiae punters might apply in their last-minute handicapping of the expanded 48-team tournament, which starts Thursday with South Africa facing Mexico in Mexico City.
The Three Lions play Croatia in Dallas (June 17), Ghana in Boston (June 23) and Panama in New Jersey (June 27).
They sport a 74.2 burden rating (out of 100), the Uzbeks 80. Curacao, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uruguay round out the top five.
Portugal, Japan, Croatia (third four years ago, second in 2018) and Austria are also among the top 10.
At the other end is Paraguay (0.0), which will call San Francisco home and play back-to-back matches at Levi’s Stadium. Above Paraguay are Mexico (0.3), South Korea (4.5) and the United States (12.7) at No. 45.
Spanish vengeance
On Sunday at DraftKings, England had the third-lowest odds, at +700 (or risk $100 to win $700), to win the ugly little golden glob. Spain and France (+475) were first and second, respectively.
I’m on record with Spain, World Cup victors in 2010 in South Africa and winners of three of the last five Euros, beating England in the final July 19.
The French have been fantastic, too, winning two of the last seven World Cups and placing in Qatar (2022) and Germany (2006).
However, it will likely play Germany in a round-of-16 match in Philadelphia, and Spain probably awaits in a semifinal in Foxborough, Massachusetts.
For England, 32-year-old striker Harry Kane keeps producing. This past season for Bayern Munich, he registered the best goals-plus-assists 90-minute rating (1.55) in Europe’s Big Five. Kane tilts that half of the bracket toward England.
By winning Group L, the Three Lions likely would avoid France and Germany. The Netherlands and Portugal shouldn’t bother England, but it will have a reckoning with Spain. England lost the Euro 24 finale to Spain 2-1 in Berlin.
Beware ‘Kaabi’
The 14th-easiest route, according to Yakubov, is Morocco, whose odds to win Group C are +390 at Circa Sports.
Several experts have called the Atlas Lions, who lost the third-place game to Croatia in Qatar, the minnows to watch.
Brazil (-310) is the Group C favorite, but the flair of Samba Soccer long has faded. Odds and prices are subject to change.
At Circa, Morocco is 60-1 to win it all. BetMGM has its odds to advance to the knockout stage at -1200. Also, it’s +350 to reach the quarterfinals, a doable route that might involve matches against Japan and Canada.
Ayoub El Kaabi is the 32-year-old Danger Man for Morocco. Known as ‘‘Kaabi,’’ his left-footed bicycle kicks are artful.
For dreamers, a Spain-Morocco final is 66-1 at BetMGM, England-Morocco 150-1 and Spain-Norway 50-1.
Germany and Colombia
WagerTalk’s Toronto-based soccer ace Carmine Bianco is sharp, having months ago picked Paris Saint-Germain to successfully defend its Champions League crown, which it did against Arsenal.
His last-minute World Cup gem is Germany to reach the quarterfinals, at +150. That would require a German disposal of France in the round of 32, up to a potential fateful quarterfinal against Spain.
Bianco’s dark-horse title candidate is Colombia, which he got at 40-1. He hopes to leverage it, should Los Cafeteros (The Coffee Growers) surprise a knockout foe or two.
As a probable runner-up to Portugal in Group K, however, that might be a tall order, with Croatia and Spain lurking in Colombia’s way.
Aching lungs
I don’t rate any of the three host nations, who are very fortunate that hosts didn’t have to qualify and that 32 squads (instead of 16) advance to the knockouts.
However, Mexico (-119 to win Group A at Circa) can trumpet significant home-side edges in altitude, heat and humidity, with two group matches in Mexico City and one in Guadalajara.
The lungs of Czechia, South Africa and South Korea will burn. Plus, winning its group means ‘‘El Tri’’ could play two knockout games in Mexico City.
Canada’s travel burden is 83.3 because it opens in Toronto and flies to Vancouver for two. The United States’ travel burden (L.A., Seattle, L.A.) is 37.7. Mexico’s is nil.
Confounding Cristiano
I concocted different group-winning parlay combinations involving Switzerland (-105), Germany (-330), the Netherlands (-130), France (-210), Spain (-450), Belgium (-250), England (-300), Portugal (-210) and Argentina (-300).
Those 20 investments were made at William Hill. At Circa Sports, I took a flier on Norway (50-1) and Erling Haaland to win it all, plus Spain (+445).
At Green Valley Ranch (GVR), I got insurance on France at +700. For long-shot group winners, I have Australia (+900 South Point, +700 GVR), Morocco (+500 GVR) and Japan (+340 GVR).
Also at Circa, I grabbed a 10-1 title ticket on Portugal and 41-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo, who keeps confounding the football gods.
In his previous five national-team matches, he has scored five times. In four seasons for Al-Nassr in Saudi Arabia, in which he has made more than 200 million Euros annually, he has netted 102 goals in 107 matches. At DraftKings, he’s 25-1 to win the Golden Boot.
Bullish on Mbappe
For high school pal Paul Caligiuri, the U.S. Hall of Fame defender, I bought, at the Westgate SuperBook, a +700 ticket on French striker Kylian Mbappe to win the Golden Boot, 18-1 on Spanish striker Lamine Yamal.
Four seasons ago, Yamal made his FC Barcelona debut at 15. This past season, he had 16 goals and 11 assists, becoming more of a threat. He turns 19 on July 13, and the Spaniards are 18-1-6 (losing only to Colombia in a 2024 friendly) with him.
He has six goals and 11 assists for La Roja. I passed because his national-team penchant has been to defer to peers Mikel Oyarzabal, Mikel Merino, Pedri and Ferran Torres.
Drought over?
In all competitions, 27-year-old U.S. striker Christian Pulisic had played 21 matches in a row without scoring until Sunday, when he scored in a 3-2 friendly triumph against Senegal. (The friendly Saturday against Germany was a truer gauge for the Americans.)
Pulisic last had scored Dec. 28, for AC Milan in a 3-0 victory against Hellas Verona. Milan is paying him nearly 100,000 Euros per week, a contract that expires in one year.
At the SuperBook, the United States (+140) has a slim Group D edge over Turkey (+180). Caligiuri is concerned about the U.S. defense at midfield and center-back, where he questions its depth.
He says that Juventus midfielder Weston McKennie is the most talented U.S. player, respected by every teammate, and that it’s imperative that he and Pulisic play off and complement each other.
‘‘Ideally, the U.S. creates three-player combinations around and inside the box,’’ Caligiuri says, ‘‘with Pulisic at the start and end of the sequence, burying [shots] into the back of the net.’’