The San Antonio Spurs enter the NBA Finals against the New York Knicks as -220 favorites, translating to an implied win probability of 68.75%.
However, one interesting historical statistical marker gives them a 37.5% chance of beating the Knicks and winning their sixth title in franchise history.
According to ESPN Research, teams coming off a grueling seven-game series are 3-5 in the NBA Finals when facing an opponent that swept their previous series. The Spurs, of course, needed seven games to beat the Oklahoma City Thunder in the West Finals, while the Knicks swept the Philadelphia 76ers and Cleveland Cavaliers.
“This is the ninth Finals matchup between a team that swept its previous series and an opponent that was forced to go seven games. The team coming off the sweep went 5-3 in the previous Finals matchups, according to ESPN Research.”
The most recent example of this trend?
The 2023 Finals pitted a well-rested Denver Nuggets squad—fresh off a sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers—against a Miami Heat team that had just survived a grueling seven-game series against the Celtics. The Nuggets beat the Heat in five games.
NBA Finals Past Trends
Several other historical trends favor the Knicks.
The Knicks are among four teams to win 11 or more straight games in a single playoff run heading into the Finals. Two of those teams went on to win the title, save for the 1988-89 Lakers, who were swept by the Detroit Pistons in the Finals after beating the Phoenix Suns (4-0), Seattle SuperSonics (4-0) and the Portland Trail Blazers (3-0) in the opening three rounds.
As such, the Knicks have a 66% chance of winning the title based on this trend.
- 2025-26 New York Knicks (11 straight wins) — ??
- 2001-02 Los Angeles Lakers (11 straight wins) — Won NBA Finals
- 1988-89 Los Angeles Lakers (11 straight wins) — Lost NBA Finals
- 2016-17 Golden State Warriors (15 straight wins) — Won NBA Finals
Can Spurs Stop Knicks?
The popular NBA Finals narrative focuses on how the Knicks can contain Victor Wembanyama. However, some scouts argue the pressure is on the Spurs to find an answer for New York—a team that has crushed opponents by an average of 23.8 points while shooting 53% from the field and 41% from deep during its 11-game win streak.
In this stretch, they’ve maintained a +262 points differential — the best by any team in the regular season or playoffs over an 11-game span. ESPN’s Ben Golliver isn’t sure if the Spurs can stop the Knicks’ juggernaut offense, especially since Jalen Brunson and Co. got the better of them in the regular season and match up in terms of personnel.
“The Knicks posted a blistering 123.0 offensive rating in their two regular-season games against San Antonio, and they torched the Spurs in the NBA Cup championship (which doesn’t officially count in the standings),” Golliver wrote.
“While the Spurs ranked third in defensive efficiency during the regular season, they conceded more points per possession to the Knicks than any of their opponents.
“This Finals will be decided by San Antonio’s ability — or inability — to slow the New York juggernaut,” he added.
Spurs will host Knicks in Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Wednesday. They open as 4.5-point favorites to take a 1-0 lead.
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