The San Diego Padres are ready to kick off the 2026 MLB season as they hope to begin their journey to a third-straight consecutive season with a postseason appearance. In order to do so, the Padres will have to make up for losing All-Star talent like closer Robert Sobert Suarez, former batting champion Luis Arraez, and starting pitcher Dylan Cease, who started 65 games over the past two seasons for the Padres.
Despite this, the Padres still possess high-caliber players and the core of the team remains the same with Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. in the fold. Additionally, the team will hope to get a full season from Jackson Merrill, who took a step back in his sophomore season where he missed 47 games.
Now, a new prediction by The Athletic’s Dennis Lin in his Padres season outlook seems to believe in Merrill plus he listed a surprising prediction for the team.
San Diego Padres Jackson Merrill Prediction
During his rookie season in 2024, Merrill made the All-Star team as he led the Padres with 5.3 WAR, according to Fangraphs. Unfortunately for the Padres, a sophomore slump was in order for Merrill who put up only 3 WAR in the 2025 season. However, Dennis Lin seems to believe a bounce back season is next for Merrill as he predicted Jackson Merrill will finish top-three in National League MVP voting. Lin wrote:
“Right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. remains the team’s most dynamic talent and a popular pick to improve on, for him, underwhelming offensive production. But watch out for Merrill, too.
Slowed last season by a concussion and hamstring and ankle injuries, the center fielder appears rejuvenated and poised to reannounce himself as one of the sport’s best young players. A 30-30 season is ambitious — and within reach. Merrill, who went 24-16 as a rookie, plans to run more after stealing only one base in 2025.
If Merrill finishes top-10 in NL MVP voting, the 2035 club option in his long-term contract would increase from $21 million to $22 million. If he places in the top five, the club option would also turn into a player option.”
Aside from the missed games, Merrill’s performance in those games also diminished. His OPS went from .824 in his rookie season to .774 in his 2025. Whether the previously mentioned injuries were a factor in his lack of production remains to be seen, but Lin certainly seems to think so.
Padres Surprise Bullpen Prediction
Additionally, Lin mentioned a a surprise prediction for the Padres’ bullpen. He predicted Bradgley Rodriguez will emerge as the Padres’ second-most-valuable reliever. Lin wrote:
“In 2024, it was Jeremiah Estrada. In 2025, it was David Morgan. In 2026, Rodriguez will be the latest Padres pitcher to go from unheralded reliever to high-leverage standout.
Rodriguez isn’t an unknown. He throws 100 mph, and he made his big-league debut last May, just days after Morgan’s arrival. His continued development is a priority; the starting rotation looks shaky, and the Padres will need to shorten games.
Jason Adam, Adrian Morejon, Estrada and Morgan are more proven, but even the best bullpens are volatile. Rodriguez has the stuff and the moxie to quickly become one of closer Mason Miller’s best setup men.”
Rodriguez emerging in the Padres bullpen would give San Diego another weapon in what is already perhaps the team’s biggest strength.
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