Sean Payton’s Historical Playoff Stat Signals Major Broncos Advantage Over Bills

Sean Payton’s track record coming out of a playoff bye gives the Broncos a major edge in their Divisional Round matchup against the Buffalo Bills. 

As highlighted in a viral post from Zach Segars, Payton is 4-0 in his career in playoff games following a first-round bye. 

He’s won those games by an average score of 31-17.

Coincidentally, that same score was the final in his Super Bowl XLIV win, which obviously also came after a bye.

In 18 seasons as a head coach, Payton is 12-6 off a bye in the regular season as well to go along with that perfect postseason 4-0 mark.

No. 1 seed in the AFC and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, Denver will lean on their home crowd.

They will also lean on their head coach to advance to the Conference Championship and follow this trend. 

Home-Field Advantage Matters More Than Ever

Historically, the No. 1 seed advances from the Divisional Round roughly 70 percent of the time. 

But as we have seen multiple times over the last few seasons, upsets are very possible in the Divisional Round. 

Just last year, the Commanders upset the 15-2 Lions as the NFC’s No. 1 seed. 

For Denver, playing at Empower Field at Mile High adds another lay of home field advantage. 

It’s a combination of the altitude, crowd noise and weather that makes it a big difference. 

The Broncos have lost just three home games since the start of 2024, turning Denver back into one of the league’s toughest playoff environments. 

Payton has seen firsthand how the environment can decide postseason outcomes. 

Reflecting on last year’s road playoff loss in Buffalo, he emphasized how those experiences shape their team’s mindset.

“You lose a game like last year in Buffalo… and you’re like, ‘We have to figure out how to play this game at home,’” Payton said. 

Payton spoke it into existence 12 months ago, and now his team will get the chance to flip the script on the Bills. 

Payton’s Bye-Week Blueprint

Despite the rest, Payton has been adamant that the Broncos have been locked in during their bye week. 

He pushed back on the notion that Denver was “holding back” offensively late in the season, admitting the tape wasn’t good enough and that sharper execution is needed. 

This bye week has been about restoring health, cleaning up details, and sharpening the offensive side of the ball. 

Just yesterday, Payton said, “I think we see most everyone back.” 

He noted that the bye week has left the Broncos as healthy as they’ve been all season. 

The bye week has also been about managing the reality of their success, as multiple Broncos assistants have drawn interview interest elsewhere. 

Payton has navigated this situation before, as he continues to support his coaching staff while keeping the focus firmly on what’s ahead.

“We’re not taking anything for granted,” Payton said. “These No. 1 seeds are hard to get.”

With history on his side, a rested roster, and a true home-field edge, Sean Payton has the Broncos positioned exactly where they need to be.

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