The belief here the last few years is that there is essentially one team most capable of defeating the Celtics in the playoffs.
That would be the Celtics.
But while coaches, execs and scouts around the league largely agree with the C’s as the main masters of their fate, they don’t think that opinion should be so strongly held this season. The Celtics seem to have a lock on the third-best record in the league and have won 11 of their last 12, though just two of those victories have come against teams currently sitting above .500.
Given proper health, the club still has ample ability to stitch another banner. The issue isn’t the Celtics; it’s the last two teams to defeat them.
“I think it’s different now,” one coach told Heavy Sports. “I still wouldn’t bet against Boston, but there’s more trouble out there. OKC and Cleveland are real.
“The one team Boston really had to worry about last year was Denver — and they never had to face them.”
Looking back, the most dangerous face for the Celts has perhaps been the one they see in the mirror.
They were compliant in their 2022 NBA Finals demise as Golden State used its wile, experience and professionalism to push the certainly able but Apparently Not Ready for Prime Time Bostonians off the cliff. And though some will say the Butler did it in the next year’s Eastern Conference title series, there is no way the Celts should have even found themselves in a Game 7 against Jimmy and the Heat.
The breakthrough came last spring when Jayson Tatum blossomed into an even more complete player — though he took some abuse from former players-turned pundits for not scoring more, even as his command of the floor was tearing foes apart (yeesh). People will still carp about the allegedly easier path to the franchise’s 18th championship, but this was more about the Celtics overcoming the self-induced adversities of iso-ball and the failure to dig in harder on defense when that iso thing was playing into the hands of the opponent.
Here in 2025, the turf accountants continued until recently to install the Celtics as favorites, despite the Thunder and Cavaliers having better records and cleaner seasons. (OKC has edged ahead, with Cleveland in third a few lengths behind.)
Scouts & Executives Size up the ‘Banged- up’ Celtics as the Playoffs Loom
“I don’t pay a whole lot of attention to what the Celtics are doing in the regular season,” said one scout. “They’ve been banged up, and they’re coming off a long year that got longer with Tatum, (Derrick) White and (Jrue) Holiday playing in the Olympics. I also think you could see boredom creep in during games. All teams give up runs after getting big leads, but they seemed to do it more than most.
“It’s been really hard to watch them play now and think there’s too much you can apply directly to the playoffs. … Except when they have all their guys and they’re just tearing it up on both ends. Then they’re f****** scary.”
But, said one personnel exec, there are others who carry a fear factor, as well.
“You don’t want to mess around with Cleveland,” he said. “They’ve got a lot of top-shelf people, and picking up (DeAndre) Hunter could be huge for them when they’re trying to throw defense at Tatum and (Jaylen) Brown.
“You get deep into a series with the Cavs, and — bing, bam — Mitchell and Garland hit you with a run, and then Mobley burns you when you try to help on those guys. Kenny’s got those guys playing free,” he said of coach Atkinson. “If you don’t pay attention to detail, you can be sitting home wondering what happened while they move on.”
And if the Celtics do manage to survive the Cleveland crucible, they could well find Oklahoma City sweepin’ down the plain.
The Thunder may be best equipped to deal with all the problems the defending champions present.
“OKC’s young, and they play really, really hard on the defensive end,” a Western Conference coach told Heavy. “They’ve got a really good roster, but you add the factors of youth and guys who want to play hard, and that’s what makes you even tougher in the regular season.
“But they also have the kind of players that will allow them to play the different ways they might need in the playoffs. They have versatile guys.”
For the Celtics to deal properly with the Thunder persistence and versatility will require both force and patience on offense.
“They’ll stop you a few times in a row, and that’s when they get you to go away from your strength,” the coach said. “But you have to stick with making the right reads, even though you know their smarts and athleticism will get you at times.”
Why the Thunder Pose a Huge Potential Threat to Boston
Tatum and Brown will be tested.
“Boston has two guys that are shot creators,” said a veteran scout, “and when you have that kind of ability, it’s hard sometimes to just find people and wait for things to develop. Guys like that want to take the ball and make a play. That can get you into trouble and lead to the kind of live-ball turnovers that kill you.
“But a team like Oklahoma City can do that to you. They switch a lot, and they force you into attacking matchups. It’s not easy to go against a team like that.”
The scout then referenced the Celtics’ 105-92 January loss at OKC when they scored 65 points in the first half and a paltry 27 in the second.
“It’s hard to move it,” he said. “When you’re running a pick and roll, and you’ve got Cason Wallace or you’ve got Jalen Williams and Lu Dort and they switch, they don’t just let you throw the ball back to the guy. They’re up and they deny the passes. They’re so aggressive. It’s hard to just move the ball.
“There are times you can do it early, like Boston did in the first half, but then the defense picks up and the whistle stops blowing.”
So while the Celtics still hold the power of self-determination, maintaining it will clearly be a greater challenge beginning next month.
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