Roki Sasaki will be one of the most polarizing players in the 2025 MLB season. He was one of the most coveted international signings we’ve seen in quite awhile. Before signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Roki was an extremely good player for the Chiba Lotte Marines where he posted a 2.10 ERA and 505 strikeouts over four seasons. Most impressively, he had one of the craziest stretches in baseball history when he famously threw 17 straight perfect innings at just 20 years old.
Spring Training
So far, Roki has been lights out in Spring Training. In seven innings, he is yet to allow a run, has seven strikeouts, and has posted a 0.86 WHIP. Sasaki’s splitter is already getting noticed as talked about as one of the better pitches in the MLB. He’s thrown it 29 times, generating 12 swings and an astonishing 11 whiffs.
After his second outing in Spring, manager Dave Roberts announced Sasaki would be the game two starter in the Japan series against the Cubs. Roberts went on to say, “He earned the spot. I’m very proud of him. For a young player to pitch for the Dodgers, obviously he’s talented and we’re excited to have him. I think it’s going to be great for him. It’s great for us. It gives us a great chance to win and it’s great for baseball.” It only took Sasaki two starts to prove his talent to the reigning World Champion Dodgers.
Fangraphs’ Projections
Fangraphs has some conservative projections for how Sasaki’s rookie season will unfold when you compare it to the hype he has. They project him to have a 3.48 ERA over 135 innings with 169.8 strikeouts. For a rookie, those are still fantastic numbers, especially when you look at the 11.32 K/9. Still, these projections are significantly higher that two of the most recent Japanese starters, Shota Imanaga and Kodai Senga.
Coming out of the NPB, Imanaga posted a 2.91 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and Senga posted a 2.98 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP. These two were in their early 30s during these rookie seasons, whereas Sasaki is only 23. Still, Sasaki has been viewed as a more talented pitcher than both of them, once again supporting that he could easily outperform these projections.
Concerns
The biggest concern for Sasaki is his durability. Over the four seasons in the NPB, he’s pitched over 100 innings just twice and maxed out at 129.1 IP in 2022. Sasaki watched his fastball velocity dip in his 2024 season and missed time due to arm soreness. While the talent has always been there, the questions about his health have as well.
Another concern is with Sasaki’s pitch mix outside of his splitter. He was primarily a two-pitch guy in Japan, but developed a slider last season. The slider still needs work to be an effective third pitch and questions have arisen about how effective his fastball will be since the velocity has dropped from roughly 99 to 97 mph. In Sasaki’s second Spring outing, his fastball grade was a 36/50 and his slider was a 32/50. This is based on a limited sample size, however, these pitches must be effective if Sasaki is going to have success in the MLB.
Outlook for 2025
While Fangraphs went the safe route in predicting his numbers, I feel like he will easily outperform a ~3.5 ERA. Sasaki has shown he is an elite talent and with all of the early success from pitchers out of Japan, it makes a lot of sense for him to follow suit. The concern is and always has been about his longevity and health. If the Dodgers are able to keep him out on the mound, he should dominate in the MLB this year, and for years to come.
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