Over the past decade, NBA teams like the Utah Jazz have created a war chest of first-round picks and otherwise find their franchise player or potentially create a super team. Though the idea sounds good, the truth is most of the trades and ideas behind the trades stem from the value of a first-round pick, let alone a first overall pick. This value is meant to build a great team through the draft or draft capital. With that in mind, is it worth it?
NO!
This is not to say that the pick itself or the player is worthless, but it is to bring attention to how the notion behind these first-round picks is worthless. If the picks were as powerful as they’re advertised, wouldn’t every team be stocking up on them to either get a great player or draft the next great? The truth is that picks aren’t what people think they are, and it’s not hard to see why.
- The NBA Has Only Two Draft Rounds
This can’t be overstated. A first-round pick is typically where teams evaluate players for their start potential, so teams try to either stockpile picks for talent or trade for high-end players in the league. This works in theory, as multiple picks to build around are worth the investment into players, but the problem is simple: first-round picks don’t have the same value in a two-round draft.
NBA teams have a 15-man roster, not including two-way contracts, so there isn’t a lot of turnover in the league for talent in comparison to larger team structures. In the NFL, a 53-man roster has higher turnover, which is why there’s a seven-round draft. Typically, round one is for a potential franchise pillar, rounds two and three are for quality starters, four and five are specialists, and six and seven are either for depth or taking a flyer on a talent.
Compared to the NBA, the talent pools, even in deeper drafts, are usually in the top 10 players. If a team includes a first-round pick in a trade, but the pick is in the mid-20s, that pick is the equivalent to a third or fourth-round pick in the NFL. While franchise players can be drafted any round, the limited rounds make the picks less valuable unless they’re within the top 10.
2. Talent Pools Fluctuate Each Draft
Having a lot of picks doesn’t mean the team will draft a great player, and drafts have up and down stocks. Talent levels in each draft aren’t uniform, and each year a player’s skillset and position can vary for team wants. One year, a draft could have several potential Hall of Famers in the first round, and another could be a better role-player draft, which makes trading picks difficult.
For teams, if the draft is comparable to the 2003 or 2021 NBA drafts, they will be hesitant to trade because the talent at the top isn’t worth giving away. Or even a draft like 2023 where a team trading the first overall pick (Victor Wembanyama) is a fireable offense. Teams with several picks to try to pry a top pick away will be turned down because the top talents are worth more than any potential picks.
If the draft is viewed as weaker, then these picks have more motivation to move. The problem is that these picks will also be viewed as less valuable, and teams will have less motivation to acquire them. When everyone knows teams want to move picks, it drives the worth of the first-rounder down and creates an impasse. There isn’t much worth for a team in this position.
First-round picks do have value. Teams are more likely to accelerate their rebuild or add talent in this manner, but the truth is a first-round pick is not the valuable trade chip that it is believed to be.
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